🐻⬇️🏀

@
2026-01-21

Model Predictions

Model San Diego State Aztecs Grand Canyon Lopes Spread Result
Elo 58.0% 42.0% -
Bradley-Terry 56.1% 43.9% -
Margin 50.0% 50.0% +0.0 (1.0 off)
Pythagorean 45.2% 54.8% -
Efficiency 36.5% 63.5% -
Adjusted Efficiency 59.3% 40.7% -
Log Adjusted 59.3% 40.7% -
Points Off/Def 48.4% 51.6% -

Actual: Grand Canyon Lopes +1 (70-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.

San Diego State Aztecs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Byrd 32 2-10 0-6 2-2 8 3 4 3 3 6 11 +8.7
R. Dixon-Waters 29 4-12 0-3 4-4 2 0 0 0 2 12 0 -0.1
E. Harrington 26 7-12 1-3 1-1 2 1 3 0 2 16 8 +1.5
T. DeGourville 22 2-6 1-2 3-4 2 1 1 1 2 8 5 +12.5
T. Simmons 21 3-4 0-0 2-2 9 0 1 0 0 8 14 +17.5
BJ Davis 20 3-6 1-2 4-6 6 1 0 0 0 11 12 -2.4
M. Heide 14 0-4 0-0 0-0 4 2 1 2 1 0 4 -4.9
P. Compton 14 4-5 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 8 5 -0.6
J. Oden 13 0-2 0-1 0-0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 -4.9
S. Newman Jr. 9 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 +7.3

Grand Canyon Lopes

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
B. Moore Jr. 35 5-12 2-2 0-0 1 3 1 0 3 12 2 -4.3
N. Owusu-Anane 34 3-8 3-5 0-0 7 3 1 1 3 9 10 -3.7
J. Henley 29 5-11 1-4 6-7 7 2 0 0 3 17 12 -3.9
M. Williams 27 3-9 2-4 9-10 4 1 2 0 2 17 13 -0.5
C. Shaw 23 2-5 2-4 0-0 5 2 2 1 1 6 10 -9.1
D. Evans 20 0-0 0-0 4-6 5 0 1 2 1 4 11 +7.6
E. Demirel 19 1-2 0-0 3-5 0 0 0 1 1 5 3 -16.4
D. Stromer 8 0-3 0-2 0-0 3 1 0 1 1 0 1 -7.1
W. Breidenbach 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 +6.0

* = starter