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San Diego State Aztecs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs
Program History
Coach: Brian Dutcher

2024 Team Stats (37 games)

74.1
PPG
66.7
Opp
+7.4
Margin
44.0%
FG%
31.5%
3P%
73.3%
FT%
37.8
RPG
13.0
APG
11.2
TO
-
Est. poss./game
75.3
Adj PPG
62.1
Adj Opp PPG
#27
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2023-2024
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1284 (#25) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1263 (#22) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +77 elo More → 1106 (#39) HCA +77 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +14.2 (#27) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.3 More → +13.1 (#35) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.737 (#49) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +20.2 More → 0.911 (#29) AdjNet +20.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +20.4 More → 0.913 (#29) AdjNet +20.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 62.1 More → 0.768 (#27) AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 62.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 63.9 More → 0.681 (#28) AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 63.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.809 (#25) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.794 (#26) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 35 More → 1236 (#30) RD 95 | GP 35

2024 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2023-11-06 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 83 - 57
2023-11-10 @ BYU Cougars L 65 - 74
2023-11-14 vs Long Beach State Beach W 88 - 76
2023-11-17 vs Saint Mary's Gaels W 79 - 54
2023-11-19 vs Washington Huskies W 100 - 97
2023-11-25 vs California Golden Bears W 76 - 67
2023-11-27 vs Point Loma Nazarene Sea Lions W 71 - 51
2023-12-01 @ UC San Diego Tritons W 63 - 62
2023-12-05 @ Grand Canyon Lopes L 73 - 79
2023-12-09 vs UC Irvine Anteaters W 63 - 62
2023-12-19 vs University of Saint Katherine Saint Katherine W 91 - 57
2023-12-21 vs Stanford Cardinal W 74 - 60
2023-12-29 @ Gonzaga Bulldogs W 84 - 74
2024-01-03 vs Fresno State Bulldogs W 74 - 47
2024-01-06 vs UNLV Rebels W 72 - 61
2024-01-09 @ San José State Spartans W 81 - 78
2024-01-13 @ New Mexico Lobos L 70 - 88
2024-01-17 vs Nevada Wolf Pack W 71 - 59
2024-01-20 @ Boise State Broncos L 66 - 67
2024-01-23 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 81 - 65
2024-01-30 @ Colorado State Rams L 71 - 79
2024-02-03 vs Utah State Aggies W 81 - 67
2024-02-06 @ Air Force Falcons W 77 - 64
2024-02-09 @ Nevada Wolf Pack L 66 - 70
2024-02-13 vs Colorado State Rams W 71 - 55
2024-02-16 vs New Mexico Lobos W 81 - 70
2024-02-20 @ Utah State Aggies L 63 - 68
2024-02-24 @ Fresno State Bulldogs W 73 - 41
2024-02-27 vs San José State Spartans W 72 - 64
2024-03-05 @ UNLV Rebels L 58 - 62
2024-03-08 vs Boise State Broncos L 77 - 79
2024-03-14 @ UNLV Rebels W 74 - 71
2024-03-15 @ Utah State Aggies W 86 - 70
2024-03-16 vs New Mexico Lobos L 61 - 68
2024-03-22 vs UAB Blazers W 69 - 65
2024-03-24 vs Yale Bulldogs W 85 - 57
2024-03-28 @ UConn Huskies L 52 - 82

2024 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jaedon Ledee Jaedon Ledee - 36 32.6 21.4 8.4 1.3 1.2 0.5 2.4 13.1 17.5 211 34 6.2 7.6 56.0 44.4 73.4 3.93 63.7 58.1
R. Waters R. Waters - 37 25.6 9.6 3.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 8.2 6.0 150 35 4.3 6.7 40.1 34.3 90.3 2.06 52.9 47.7
Lamont Butler Lamont Butler G 37 27.6 9.3 2.6 3.0 1.5 0.2 1.5 8.2 7.0 152 35 4.3 6.3 42.1 30.2 59.4 -0.09 49.8 47.4
Micah Parrish Micah Parrish - 37 27.5 9.3 4.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.8 8.4 7.6 142 35 4.1 6.0 39.0 29.2 73.7 1.11 50.2 46.6
Darrion Trammell Darrion Trammell - 35 27.7 7.8 2.5 3.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 6.7 6.8 122 33 3.7 5.3 38.3 32.5 81.8 -0.73 51.7 46.6
Elijah Saunders Elijah Saunders - 37 20.2 6.2 3.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 5.4 5.2 103 35 2.9 5.8 41.9 32.2 96.0 1.64 54.8 51.8
Jay Pal Jay Pal - 37 17.1 5.1 4.2 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.2 3.6 6.4 142 35 4.1 9.5 45.5 30.6 70.1 4.38 55.7 49.6
Miles Byrd Miles Byrd - 34 14.1 4.0 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 3.6 4.4 52 32 1.6 4.8 38.0 31.1 84.6 0.0 51.7 47.5
Miles Heide Miles Heide - 37 8.7 1.9 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.3 3.1 10 35 0.3 1.4 63.3 0.0 36.8 -1.07 60.1 63.3
BJ Davis BJ Davis - 12 5.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.3 -16 10 -1.6 -12.3 20.0 9.1 77.8 -3.63 36.9 23.3
Cam Lawin Cam Lawin - 9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 -3 7 -0.4 -8.9 33.3 25.0 33.3 -0.74 41.0 41.7
Demarshay Johnson Jr. Demarshay Johnson Jr. - 16 4.8 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 -36 15 -2.4 -23.5 42.9 0 0.0 -5.99 32.6 42.9
Cade Alger Cade Alger - 9 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 -13 7 -1.9 -42.4 14.3 0.0 100.0 -2.79 25.4 14.3
Magoon Gwath Magoon Gwath F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ryan Schwarz Ryan Schwarz - 7 2.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 -0.9 -5 6 -0.8 -19.4 0.0 0.0 0 -1.65 0.0 0.0
Desai Lopez Desai Lopez - 3 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 - - - - 0.0 0 0 -1.78 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG