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San Diego State Aztecs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs
Program History
Coach: Brian Dutcher

2019 Team Stats (7 games)

64.9
PPG
63.9
Opp
+1.0
Margin
38.1%
FG%
33.6%
3P%
68.0%
FT%
36.7
RPG
12.1
APG
12.4
TO
-
Est. poss./game
69.3
Adj PPG
65.0
Adj Opp PPG
#110
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt. More → Data withheld: source-integrity hold Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt.
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1088 (#111) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +83 elo More → 1064 (#76) HCA +83 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.6 (#110) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → +3.0 (#122) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.615 (#102) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.6 More → 0.705 (#103) AdjNet +7.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +7.6 More → 0.708 (#103) AdjNet +7.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 65.0 More → 0.597 (#110) AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 65.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.8 More → 0.560 (#103) AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.636 (#91) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.629 (#88) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 124 | GP 33 More → 1114 (#87) RD 124 | GP 33

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-06 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 76 - 60
2018-11-14 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 103 - 64
2018-11-19 vs Duke Blue Devils L 64 - 90
2018-11-20 vs Xavier Musketeers W 79 - 74
2018-11-21 @ Iowa State Cyclones L 57 - 87
2018-11-27 vs Jackson State Tigers W 87 - 44
2018-12-01 @ Illinois State Redbirds W 75 - 65
2018-12-05 vs San Diego Toreros L 61 - 73
2018-12-08 @ California Golden Bears L 83 - 89
2018-12-12 vs Cal State Dominguez Hills Toros W 99 - 46
2018-12-22 vs BYU Cougars W 90 - 81
2018-12-29 vs Brown Bears L 61 - 82
2019-01-01 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 65 - 60
2019-01-05 @ Boise State Broncos L 64 - 88
2019-01-08 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 84 - 54
2019-01-12 @ Air Force Falcons L 48 - 62
2019-01-15 vs New Mexico Lobos W 97 - 77
2019-01-22 @ Fresno State Bulldogs L 62 - 66
2019-01-26 vs UNLV Rebels W 94 - 77
2019-01-30 vs Air Force Falcons W 66 - 51
2019-02-02 @ San José State Spartans W 67 - 56
2019-02-05 @ New Mexico Lobos L 70 - 83
2019-02-09 vs Utah State Aggies W 68 - 63
2019-02-12 @ Colorado State Rams W 71 - 60
2019-02-16 vs Boise State Broncos W 71 - 65
2019-02-20 vs Nevada Wolf Pack W 65 - 57
2019-02-23 @ UNLV Rebels W 60 - 59
2019-02-26 @ Utah State Aggies L 54 - 70
2019-03-02 vs San José State Spartans W 84 - 56
2019-03-06 vs Fresno State Bulldogs L 74 - 76
2019-03-09 @ Nevada Wolf Pack L 53 - 81
2019-03-14 vs UNLV Rebels W 63 - 55
2019-03-15 @ Nevada Wolf Pack W 65 - 56
2019-03-16 @ Utah State Aggies L 57 - 64

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Watson D. Watson G 7 35.7 15.9 3.7 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 11.4 11.3 79 29 2.7 3.4 38.8 37.5 75.7 -1.11 57.6 51.9
J. McDaniels J. McDaniels - 7 30.0 12.1 7.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 3.0 12.0 8.0 78 28 2.8 3.7 38.1 30.0 72.0 -1.18 44.7 39.9
M. Bradley M. Bradley - 1 29.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 18.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Hemsley J. Hemsley G 7 30.0 10.3 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.3 1.9 9.0 6.9 56 27 2.1 2.8 41.3 33.3 70.6 0.11 51.1 47.6
M. Mitchell M. Mitchell F 7 29.1 10.1 5.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 2.4 9.4 5.3 108 29 3.7 6.0 34.8 31.0 66.7 2.22 46.4 41.7
Nathan Mensah Nathan Mensah - 34 18.9 5.6 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.5 10.9 169 29 5.8 13.1 46.2 0 57.1 5.27 163.3 46.2
J. Schakel J. Schakel - 7 19.9 4.9 2.3 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.4 105 24 4.4 7.9 38.5 27.8 81.8 3.17 55.1 48.1
A. Arop A. Arop - 30 15.1 3.2 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 6.4 -29 26 -1.1 -3.1 34.6 0.0 60.0 -2.48 170.2 34.6
N. Narain N. Narain F 7 10.3 2.6 1.7 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 -15 25 -0.6 -2.1 54.5 100.0 55.6 -1.72 60.2 59.1
A. Seiko A. Seiko - 32 12.1 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 3.2 -5 27 -0.2 -0.6 66.7 62.5 50.0 -2.96 257.5 94.4
Ed Chang Ed Chang - 3 3.7 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.7 13 11 1.2 11.2 33.3 33.3 0 -0.2 50.0 50.0
J. Mensah J. Mensah F 3 6.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.3 -8 12 -0.7 -4.7 16.7 0 50.0 -2.34 21.8 16.7
M. Sohikish M. Sohikish G 3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 9 10 0.9 11.1 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.27 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG