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North Carolina Tar Heels

Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History

2025 Team Stats (36 games)

69.3
PPG
57.3
Opp
+12.3
Margin
42.0%
FG%
33.9%
3P%
66.5%
FT%
38.6
RPG
13.6
APG
13.0
TO
81.4
Pace
75.3
AdjO
48.3
AdjD
#23
Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1387 (#12) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1372 (#15) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +27.6 (#24) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.904 (#31) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → 0.904 (#30) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +41.5 More → 0.992 (#17) AdjNet +41.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +42.5 More → 0.993 (#17) AdjNet +42.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 48.3 More → 0.921 (#23) AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 48.3

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-04 vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers W 83 - 53
2024-11-07 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks W 77 - 50
2024-11-12 @ North Carolina A&T Aggies W 66 - 47
2024-11-15 vs UConn Huskies L 58 - 69
2024-11-23 vs Ball State Cardinals W 63 - 52
2024-11-24 vs Villanova Wildcats W 53 - 36
2024-11-25 @ Indiana Hoosiers W 69 - 39
2024-11-29 vs North Carolina Central Eagles W 119 - 43
2024-12-05 vs Kentucky Wildcats W 72 - 53
2024-12-08 vs Coppin State Eagles W 72 - 46
2024-12-11 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 80 - 56
2024-12-15 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets L 76 - 82
2024-12-18 vs Florida Gators W 77 - 57
2024-12-21 vs Norfolk State Spartans W 90 - 47
2024-12-29 @ Miami Hurricanes W 69 - 60
2025-01-05 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish L 66 - 76
2025-01-09 vs Duke Blue Devils W 53 - 46
2025-01-12 vs Boston College Eagles W 80 - 67
2025-01-16 @ SMU Mustangs W 64 - 33
2025-01-19 @ Pittsburgh Panthers W 75 - 58
2025-01-23 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 76 - 51
2025-01-26 vs Florida State Seminoles L 84 - 86
2025-01-30 @ California Golden Bears W 65 - 52
2025-02-02 @ Stanford Cardinal W 69 - 67
2025-02-09 @ Clemson Tigers W 53 - 51
2025-02-13 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 67 - 62
2025-02-16 vs NC State Wolfpack W 66 - 65
2025-02-20 @ Syracuse Orange W 68 - 58
2025-02-23 @ Louisville Cardinals W 79 - 75
2025-02-27 @ Duke Blue Devils L 53 - 68
2025-03-02 vs Virginia Cavaliers L 75 - 78
2025-03-06 vs Boston College Eagles W 78 - 71
2025-03-07 @ Florida State Seminoles W 60 - 56
2025-03-08 @ NC State Wolfpack L 55 - 66
2025-03-22 vs Oregon State Beavers W 70 - 49
2025-03-24 vs West Virginia Mountaineers W 58 - 47
2025-03-28 @ Duke Blue Devils L 38 - 47

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
A. Ustby A. Ustby G 33 29.9 10.9 9.5 2.8 1.2 1.0 2.6 9.9 12.9 81 2.3 3.0 45.6 34.0 55.0 1.57 49.6 48.2
M. Gakdeng M. Gakdeng F 33 25.4 10.8 7.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7 7.3 12.2 32 1.0 1.4 58.7 0 65.2 0.72 61.3 58.7
L. Donarski L. Donarski G 37 30.0 10.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.8 9.3 5.2 91 2.4 3.6 42.3 39.8 67.7 1.49 55.7 54.8
R. Kelly R. Kelly G 33 27.4 9.6 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.1 1.3 8.9 5.4 65 2.0 3.0 41.0 41.2 86.4 1.04 50.9 47.8
I. Nivar I. Nivar G 34 24.0 8.3 4.5 2.0 2.0 0.4 2.3 9.1 5.9 56 1.6 2.4 36.8 21.5 55.9 0.99 41.6 39.5
L. Grant L. Grant G 37 21.6 7.3 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 6.2 3.1 39 1.1 1.6 36.4 34.6 80.8 1.29 51.7 46.1
T. Crisp T. Crisp G 28 13.9 5.6 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5.3 2.9 -8 -0.3 -0.5 37.8 25.6 80.0 0.32 48.7 44.9
G. Townsend G. Townsend G 37 15.6 4.2 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.5 3.7 4.2 18 0.5 1.0 40.9 18.4 69.2 0.26 48.5 43.4
C. Toomey C. Toomey F 32 10.3 3.2 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 3.2 2.8 -6 -0.2 -0.5 39.8 31.4 25.0 0.14 46.6 47.6
L. Hull L. Hull G 23 7.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 2.4 2.3 17 0.7 4.5 38.2 38.9 66.7 -0.31 52.0 50.9
B. Thomas B. Thomas C 33 10.9 2.4 3.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 2.3 4.3 28 0.8 2.5 36.4 0.0 59.0 0.42 41.9 36.4
S. Barker S. Barker G 9 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 35 1.2 1.4 83.3 100.0 75.0 1.09 96.6 100.0
J. Zubich J. Zubich G 17 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 0.7 -8 -0.5 -3.0 28.6 20.8 100.0 -0.58 43.0 37.5

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG