Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.5% | 67.5% | +4.0 | ✓ (7.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack +11 (66-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Gakdeng | 36 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | -6.1 |
| A. Ustby | 34 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | -0.4 |
| L. Donarski | 29 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | -13.5 |
| L. Grant | 28 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -4.1 |
| I. Nivar | 22 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | -2.5 |
| G. Townsend | 22 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +5.3 |
| R. Kelly | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -10.6 |
| T. Crisp | 8 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -8.2 |
| B. Thomas | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.4 |
| J. Zubich | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rivers | 38 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +16.5 |
| Z. Brooks | 37 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +11.9 |
| M. Hayes | 33 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | +15.5 |
| A. James | 31 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 8-8 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | +5.9 |
| Z. Jones | 21 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -0.2 |
| T. Trygger | 18 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +14.3 |
| L. Awou | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | -3.1 |
| M. Collier | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -0.1 |
* = starter