Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.9% | 85.1% | +9.6 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +9 (47-38). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ustby | 40 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -7.0 |
| L. Donarski | 35 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -3.7 |
| R. Kelly | 33 | 2-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -4 | -2.4 |
| I. Nivar | 30 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | +2.6 |
| L. Grant | 23 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -14.1 |
| M. Gakdeng | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | +2.5 |
| G. Townsend | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.6 |
| B. Thomas | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.7 |
| T. Crisp | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
| C. Toomey | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.9 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Jackson | 34 | 3-16 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | +2.9 |
| R. Richardson | 32 | 1-11 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +9.5 |
| D. Thomas | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +15.8 |
| O. Okananwa | 28 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | +8.1 |
| J. Donovan | 22 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -4.3 |
| V. de Jesus | 21 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +21.6 |
| T. Fournier | 17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | +5.5 |
| T. Mair | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.6 |
| J. Wood | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.9 |
| E. Koabel | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
* = starter