Ball State
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
76.0
PPG
82.0
Opp
-6.0
Margin
41.3%
FG%
23.5%
3P%
67.5%
FT%
39.0
RPG
13.0
APG
18.7
TO
78.2
Est. poss./game
69.0
Adj PPG
73.7
Adj Opp PPG
#140
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1179 (#84) | Preseason prior 1219 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1126, returning +171, transfers -79, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1098 (#93) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1095 (#96) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.0 (#136) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.0 (#137) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.618 (#127) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.610 (#122) | AdjNet -1.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.648 (#113) | AdjNet +1.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.553 (#140) | AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 73.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.551 (#142) | AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 73.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.604 (#121) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.603 (#121) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1101 (#95) | RD 182 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.680 (#95) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Arkansas State Red Wolves | W | 84 - 74 |
| 2026-11-07 | vs | High Point Panthers | L | 71 - 78 |
| 2026-11-12 | vs | Louisville Cardinals | L | 73 - 94 |
| 2026-11-18 | vs | Illinois Fighting Illini | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | UIC Flames | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lilli Barnes
|
G | 3 | 32.7 | 20.0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 21.0 | -22 | 3 | -7.3 | -9.0 | 69.0 | 60.0 | 70.8 | 0.21 | 75.8 | 74.1 |
Grace Kingery
|
G | 3 | 35.7 | 19.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 4.7 | -1 | 3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 39.2 | 23.3 | 84.6 | 1.48 | 51.1 | 46.1 |
Tessa Towers
|
C | 3 | 24.3 | 16.0 | 10.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 14 | 3 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 48.6 | 0 | 92.3 | 3.46 | 56.2 | 48.6 |
Zhen Verburgt
|
F | 3 | 16.3 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | -21 | 3 | -7.0 | -17.3 | 27.3 | 20.0 | 71.4 | -1.05 | 37.9 | 31.8 |
Karsyn Norman
|
G | 3 | 31.7 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 3.0 | -29 | 3 | -9.7 | -12.3 | 27.8 | 21.4 | 100.0 | 1.3 | 39.7 | 36.1 |
Helen Holley
|
F | 3 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | -32 | 3 | -10.7 | -28.8 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.92 | 42.2 | 36.4 |
Aniss Tagayi
|
F | 3 | 21.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 1 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 1.01 | 35.7 | 36.4 |
Faith Walker
|
G | 3 | 19.0 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 33.3 | 25.0 | -2.39 | 25.8 | 25.0 |
Giorgia Gorini
|
G | 3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.18 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Klaske Miedema
|
F | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -49.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.09 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
184 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Grace KingeryLilli BarnesTessa TowersKarsyn NormanAniss TagayiFaith WalkerGiorgia Gorini
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 40-64 | 62.5 | 80 | Lilli Barnes 32% (26 pts) | Tessa Towers 30% (24 pts) | Tessa Towers 46% (11 misses) | Helen Holley 12% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 20-50 | 40.0 | 40 | Grace Kingery 35% (14 pts) | Tessa Towers 25% (10 pts) | Tessa Towers 27% (8 misses) | Zhen Verburgt 17% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 0-3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Grace Kingery 67% (2 misses) | Lilli Barnes 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Karsyn Norman 50% (2 pts) | Tessa Towers 50% (2 pts) | Aniss Tagayi 50% (1 misses) | Lilli Barnes 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Left corner 3 | 1-5 | 20.0 | 3 | Grace Kingery 100% (3 pts) | - | Grace Kingery 50% (2 misses) | Karsyn Norman 25% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-7 | 28.6 | 6 | Grace Kingery 50% (3 pts) | Lilli Barnes 50% (3 pts) | Karsyn Norman 60% (3 misses) | Grace Kingery 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 6-29 | 20.7 | 18 | Grace Kingery 50% (9 pts) | Karsyn Norman 33% (6 pts) | Grace Kingery 61% (14 misses) | Karsyn Norman 13% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 2-9 | 22.2 | 6 | Grace Kingery 100% (6 pts) | - | Grace Kingery 29% (2 misses) | Karsyn Norman 29% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 4-13 | 30.8 | 12 | Faith Walker 25% (3 pts) | Karsyn Norman 25% (3 pts) | Giorgia Gorini 33% (3 misses) | Grace Kingery 33% (3 misses) |