SMU Mustangs2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1080 (#120) | Preseason prior 1039 (returning production + recruiting): last season 950, returning -49, transfers +138, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1057 (#113) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1057 (#112) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.7 (#115) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.7 (#115) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.877 (#69) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.707 (#93) | AdjNet +12.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.733 (#89) | AdjNet +13.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.591 (#114) | AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 57.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.590 (#115) | AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 57.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.657 (#105) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.657 (#105) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1094 (#100) | RD 179 | GP 4 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.655 (#108) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | vs | Le Moyne Dolphins | W | 72 - 36 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Hampton Lady Pirates | W | 66 - 54 |
| 2026-11-08 | vs | East Texas A&M Lions | W | 78 - 65 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Long Island University Sharks | W | 69 - 50 |
| 2026-11-15 | vs | Nicholls Colonels | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-17 | @ | Kansas State Wildcats | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | vs | Grand Canyon Lopes | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Theresa Hagans Jr.
|
G | 4 | 28.2 | 18.8 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 16.2 | 10.0 | 63 | 4 | 15.8 | 22.4 | 43.1 | 43.5 | 90.0 | 0.62 | 54.0 | 50.8 |
Shania James
|
G | 4 | 23.2 | 14.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 76 | 4 | 19.0 | 33.8 | 55.6 | 65.0 | 50.0 | 2.92 | 72.5 | 73.6 |
Grace Ezebilo
|
F | 4 | 25.2 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 71 | 4 | 17.8 | 29.4 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 2.66 | 47.3 | 42.9 |
Zahra King
|
G | 3 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 | 15.5 | 23.1 | 10.0 | 83.3 | -1.96 | 31.4 | 25.0 |
Mailien Rolf
|
G | 4 | 24.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 43 | 4 | 10.8 | 18.4 | 47.1 | 33.3 | 71.4 | -0.66 | 57.3 | 52.9 |
Adja Kane
|
F | 4 | 26.8 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 75 | 4 | 18.8 | 28.6 | 39.1 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 3.16 | 43.7 | 39.1 |
Camille Nesmith
|
C | 4 | 15.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 9.2 | 12 | 4 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 61.5 | - | 57.1 | -2.31 | 62.2 | 61.5 |
Izela Arenas
|
G | 4 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 4 | 4.2 | 14.2 | 35.0 | 11.1 | 33.3 | -1.82 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
Elise Hill
|
G | 4 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 16 | 3 | 5.3 | 21.8 | 35.7 | 44.4 | - | -0.53 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Kaylin Jackson
|
F | 4 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.77 | 38.1 | 42.9 |
Zoe Osby
|
F | 2 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 1 | 6.0 | 40.7 | 50.0 | - | - | -0.12 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Kinsea Grimes
|
F | 4 | 8.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 9 | 4 | 2.2 | 11.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.14 | 34.0 | 20.0 |
Roxy White
|
F | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | -0.81 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
256 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Theresa Hagans Jr.Shania JamesGrace EzebiloMailien RolfCamille NesmithElise HillZahra King
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 20-35 | 57.1 | 40 | Camille Nesmith 30% (12 pts) | Grace Ezebilo 25% (10 pts) | Zahra King 33% (5 misses) | Adja Kane 27% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 38-67 | 56.7 | 76 | Theresa Hagans Jr. 24% (18 pts) | Adja Kane 18% (14 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 24% (7 misses) | Grace Ezebilo 14% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 9-31 | 29.0 | 18 | Shania James 33% (6 pts) | Mailien Rolf 22% (4 pts) | Grace Ezebilo 23% (5 misses) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 18% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 4-21 | 19.0 | 8 | Shania James 50% (4 pts) | Adja Kane 25% (2 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 35% (6 misses) | Grace Ezebilo 29% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 6-17 | 35.3 | 12 | Theresa Hagans Jr. 50% (6 pts) | Grace Ezebilo 17% (2 pts) | Shania James 27% (3 misses) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 27% (3 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 2-14 | 14.3 | 6 | Mailien Rolf 50% (3 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 50% (3 pts) | Mailien Rolf 25% (3 misses) | Izela Arenas 17% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 3-9 | 33.3 | 9 | Elise Hill 33% (3 pts) | Shania James 33% (3 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 50% (3 misses) | Elise Hill 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 14-32 | 43.8 | 42 | Shania James 43% (18 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 29% (12 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 22% (4 misses) | Elise Hill 17% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 6-11 | 54.5 | 18 | Theresa Hagans Jr. 50% (9 pts) | Shania James 33% (6 pts) | Shania James 40% (2 misses) | Elise Hill 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-19 | 26.3 | 15 | Shania James 60% (9 pts) | Mailien Rolf 20% (3 pts) | Theresa Hagans Jr. 29% (4 misses) | Zahra King 29% (4 misses) |