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Mississippi State

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Mississippi State Bulldogs, Mississippi State
Program History
Coach: Chris Jans

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

78.5
PPG
82.8
Opp
-4.3
Margin
45.5%
FG%
33.0%
3P%
66.8%
FT%
37.9
RPG
13.0
APG
12.0
TO
83.4
Pace
80.7
AdjO
74.3
AdjD
#100
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 966 (#209) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1017 (#164) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 950 (#599) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +6.4 (#98) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +16.7 (#122) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.353 (#262) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -28.5 More → 0.049 (#332) NetEff -28.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.8 More → 0.734 (#100) AdjNet +8.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.739 (#99) AdjNet +9.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 74.3 More → 0.641 (#100) AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 74.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 77.3 More → 0.479 (#342) AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 77.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.785 (#150) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.725 (#169) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 135 | GP 30 More → 1066 (#174) RD 135 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-05 vs North Alabama Lions W 86 - 62
2025-11-10 @ Iowa State Cyclones L 80 - 96
2025-11-15 vs SE Louisiana Lions W 75 - 68
2025-11-20 @ Kansas State Wildcats L 77 - 98
2025-11-21 @ New Mexico Lobos L 78 - 80
2025-11-24 vs New Orleans Privateers W 81 - 78
2025-11-28 vs SMU Mustangs L 81 - 87
2025-12-03 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 85 - 73
2025-12-13 @ Utah Utes W 82 - 74
2025-12-16 vs Long Island University Sharks W 87 - 83
2025-12-20 vs Memphis Tigers W 71 - 66
2025-12-29 vs Alabama State Hornets W 94 - 56
2026-01-03 @ Texas Longhorns W 101 - 98
2026-01-07 vs Oklahoma Sooners W 72 - 53
2026-01-10 @ Kentucky Wildcats L 68 - 92
2026-01-13 vs Alabama Crimson Tide L 82 - 97
2026-01-21 @ Texas A&M Aggies L 68 - 88
2026-01-24 vs Vanderbilt Commodores L 56 - 88
2026-01-28 @ LSU Tigers W 80 - 66
2026-01-31 @ Missouri Tigers L 79 - 84
2026-02-07 vs Arkansas Razorbacks L 68 - 88
2026-02-11 vs Tennessee Volunteers L 64 - 73
2026-02-14 @ Ole Miss Rebels W 90 - 78
2026-02-18 vs Auburn Tigers W 91 - 85
2026-02-21 @ South Carolina Gamecocks L 89 - 97
2026-02-25 @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 75 - 100
2026-02-28 vs Missouri Tigers L 64 - 88
2026-03-03 @ Florida Gators L 74 - 108
2026-03-07 vs Georgia Bulldogs L 96 - 102
2026-03-11 @ Auburn Tigers L 61 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Hubbard J. Hubbard G 30 34.4 23.0 2.6 3.7 1.2 0.1 2.4 18.1 10.0 -96 -4.0 -8.7 42.9 34.8 76.4 -0.14 55.8 51.4
J. Epps J. Epps - 28 26.9 13.4 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.2 2.0 11.7 5.2 -18 -0.9 -1.4 41.0 31.0 80.6 -0.06 52.6 49.1
J. McGhee J. McGhee - 30 21.5 8.3 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 6.9 4.2 61 2.8 5.1 42.0 41.0 67.7 1.02 52.9 49.8
Q. Ballard Q. Ballard C 30 20.4 6.8 6.1 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.9 4.7 9.3 47 2.1 4.4 60.3 0 68.8 0.56 62.6 60.3
A. Achor A. Achor - 30 18.3 6.4 6.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 5.2 8.1 -26 -1.2 -3.1 44.2 28.8 70.4 0.26 53.7 49.7
S. Jones Jr. S. Jones Jr. G 29 25.8 5.3 3.9 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.3 4.7 6.8 13 0.6 1.0 41.6 30.3 65.6 0.33 51.3 48.9
King Grace King Grace - 24 12.2 5.1 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 4.0 3.0 -23 -1.4 -5.2 43.8 31.9 82.1 -0.25 56.3 51.6
B. Walker B. Walker - 18 8.6 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 3.6 3.4 -26 -1.2 -6.8 53.1 33.3 48.0 0.02 56.0 56.2
Sergej Macura Sergej Macura - 26 18.3 4.7 4.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.7 3.5 6.5 67 3.7 8.0 56.5 35.3 39.4 1.17 57.7 59.8
A. Ali A. Ali G 11 7.6 3.5 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 3.5 2.1 21 1.9 10.1 34.2 30.8 57.1 0.19 46.3 44.7
Jamarion Davis-Fleming Jamarion Davis-Fleming - 30 20.0 3.5 4.7 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.6 2.1 8.0 -65 -3.0 -6.7 71.0 0 34.0 -0.63 62.1 71.0
D. Warren D. Warren G 18 7.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 9 0.6 3.1 33.3 14.3 25.0 -0.01 37.3 38.1
G. Chol G. Chol C 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cameren Paul Cameren Paul G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 0 0.0 0.0 - - - -0.0 - -
Tee Bartlett Tee Bartlett C 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG