Cal Poly Mustangs
2026 Team Stats (30 games)
56.9
PPG
72.4
Opp
-15.5
Margin
37.9%
FG%
26.9%
3P%
73.4%
FT%
34.8
RPG
10.6
APG
20.1
TO
71.2
Est. poss./game
55.0
Adj PPG
73.2
Adj Opp PPG
#335
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 496 (#357) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 573 (#356) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 809 (#358) | HCA +106 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -18.7 (#331) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -18.7 (#339) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.029 (#356) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.029 (#356) | NetEff -27.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.037 (#333) | AdjNet -28.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.033 (#334) | AdjNet -28.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.161 (#335) | AdjO 55.0 | AdjD 73.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.218 (#349) | AdjO 55.8 | AdjD 69.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.100 (#349) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.107 (#351) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 589 (#355) | RD 157 | GP 28 |
2026 Schedule & Results
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanessa McManus
|
G | 26 | 32.1 | 15.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 13.4 | 6.3 | -208 | 22 | -9.5 | -11.8 | 40.5 | 29.8 | 79.2 | 2.55 | 51.5 | 45.7 |
Charish Thompson
|
F | 29 | 29.9 | 14.2 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 10.9 | 8.2 | -216 | 24 | -9.0 | -12.1 | 45.3 | 33.3 | 81.6 | 1.29 | 54.5 | 47.0 |
Nora Perez
|
F | 26 | 22.4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 4.8 | -260 | 22 | -11.8 | -21.2 | 43.6 | 25.0 | 45.7 | -2.62 | 45.6 | 45.0 |
Dulci Vail
|
F | 18 | 18.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | -108 | 17 | -6.4 | -14.8 | 39.2 | 43.8 | 80.8 | -2.38 | 48.0 | 42.8 |
Madison Butcher
|
G | 15 | 22.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | -114 | 11 | -10.4 | -19.4 | 43.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | -0.84 | 58.0 | 55.6 |
Alana Goosby
|
G | 27 | 30.8 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | -316 | 23 | -13.7 | -17.8 | 34.0 | 21.9 | 55.6 | -3.65 | 37.7 | 36.3 |
Avery Knapp
|
F | 24 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | -161 | 20 | -8.1 | -25.8 | 38.4 | 26.7 | 83.3 | -2.95 | 51.9 | 41.1 |
Katie Peiffer
|
G | 21 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | -126 | 17 | -7.4 | -27.6 | 25.8 | 21.2 | 70.6 | -4.5 | 37.3 | 33.7 |
Gabby Robinson
|
G | 11 | 25.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | -152 | 8 | -19.0 | -25.1 | 31.1 | 0.0 | 60.0 | -2.79 | 34.4 | 31.1 |
Arissa Garcia
|
G | 23 | 21.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | -230 | 20 | -11.5 | -22.3 | 26.7 | 17.4 | 60.0 | -4.8 | 33.9 | 28.9 |
Jordan Billing
|
G | 26 | 13.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -183 | 23 | -8.0 | -26.2 | 31.2 | 23.3 | 66.7 | -6.56 | 41.9 | 39.1 |
Ana Moleon Hidalgo
|
G | 15 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | -55 | 11 | -5.0 | -16.0 | 32.5 | 40.0 | 33.3 | -0.69 | 35.2 | 35.0 |
Gillian Bears
|
F | 21 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | -116 | 16 | -7.2 | -38.9 | 26.8 | 20.0 | 61.1 | -5.9 | 34.8 | 28.0 |
Maya Sharvit
|
F | 9 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.1 | -20 | 9 | -2.2 | -13.0 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -1.19 | 70.9 | 72.2 |
Vivian Franklin
|
G | 19 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -81 | 14 | -5.8 | -30.9 | 21.7 | 18.8 | 0.0 | -4.71 | 27.7 | 28.3 |
Ella Skrzyniarz
|
G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2025-2026 Shot Zones
1618 located field-goal attempts in 30 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Vanessa McManusCharish ThompsonMadison ButcherKatie PeifferJordan Billing
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 210-373 | 56.3 | 420 | Charish Thompson 25% (104 pts) | Vanessa McManus 18% (74 pts) | Charish Thompson 21% (34 misses) | Vanessa McManus 15% (25 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 175-510 | 34.3 | 350 | Charish Thompson 27% (94 pts) | Vanessa McManus 18% (62 pts) | Charish Thompson 24% (80 misses) | Nora Perez 15% (51 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 29-85 | 34.1 | 58 | Charish Thompson 31% (18 pts) | Vanessa McManus 28% (16 pts) | Charish Thompson 25% (14 misses) | Vanessa McManus 20% (11 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 44-85 | 51.8 | 88 | Vanessa McManus 39% (34 pts) | Charish Thompson 34% (30 pts) | Charish Thompson 34% (14 misses) | Vanessa McManus 32% (13 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 34-113 | 30.1 | 68 | Vanessa McManus 35% (24 pts) | Charish Thompson 26% (18 pts) | Vanessa McManus 37% (29 misses) | Alana Goosby 15% (12 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 8-38 | 21.1 | 24 | Jordan Billing 38% (9 pts) | Ana Moleon Hidalgo 12% (3 pts) | Katie Peiffer 27% (8 misses) | Jordan Billing 17% (5 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 13-34 | 38.2 | 39 | Madison Butcher 38% (15 pts) | Jordan Billing 15% (6 pts) | Vanessa McManus 29% (6 misses) | Alana Goosby 14% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 37-138 | 26.8 | 111 | Vanessa McManus 24% (27 pts) | Katie Peiffer 22% (24 pts) | Vanessa McManus 23% (23 misses) | Katie Peiffer 20% (20 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 29-98 | 29.6 | 87 | Vanessa McManus 31% (27 pts) | Charish Thompson 24% (21 pts) | Vanessa McManus 28% (19 misses) | Charish Thompson 16% (11 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 35-144 | 24.3 | 105 | Vanessa McManus 46% (48 pts) | Madison Butcher 11% (12 pts) | Vanessa McManus 31% (34 misses) | Vivian Franklin 12% (13 misses) |