Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.2% | 87.8% | +12.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.3% | 86.7% | +10.3 | ✓ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 9.5% | 90.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +15 (65-50). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charish Thompson * | 38 | 5-18 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 6 | -5.5 |
| Vanessa McManus * | 38 | 4-15 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Alana Goosby * | 37 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | -5.7 |
| Dulci Vail * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | +13.9 |
| Jordan Billing * | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Arissa Garcia | 30 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -17.2 |
| Nora Perez | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -16.2 |
| Katie Peiffer | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.8 |
| Maya Sharvit | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika Aspajo * | 37 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 10 | +4.7 |
| Mariona Cos-Morales * | 36 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 16 | +8.8 |
| Jite Gbemuotor * | 35 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 24 | +10.3 |
| Morgan Edwards * | 29 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Rita Nazario * | 13 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | -16.5 |
| Saray White | 27 | 5-10 | 0-4 | 3-6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +18.7 |
| Laini Dahlin | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5.2 |
| Alondra Lizama | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -7.9 |
| Nadia Bernard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2.1 |
| Jana Canadell | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.5 |
| Amya Moody | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -4.5 |
* = starter