Model Predictions
| Model | Idaho State Bengals | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 92.8% | 7.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 92.3% | 7.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 96.1% | 3.9% | -17.6 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.2% | 3.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.9% | 4.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.0% | 4.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 81.6% | 18.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -13 (49-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen Caldwell | 33 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | +0.8 |
| Kacey Spink | 30 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -1.2 |
| Alyse Aby | 29 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -2 | -3.7 |
| Tasia Jordan | 29 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Piper Carlson | 26 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +1.6 |
| Maeva GAUFFRENET | 22 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -1 | +12.4 |
| Asa Wolfram | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | +6.1 |
| Halle Wright | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Mackenzie Marenchin | 5 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2.8 |
| Camryn Collman | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.3 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charish Thompson | 38 | 7-8 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 14 | +3.5 |
| Vanessa McManus | 35 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 5 | +9.6 |
| Alana Goosby | 33 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -4.9 |
| Nora Perez | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | +0.9 |
| Gabby Robinson | 24 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -6 | -3.0 |
| Madison Butcher | 22 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -9.6 |
| Jordan Billing | 10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.7 |
| Avery Knapp | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -5.7 |
| Gillian Bears | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.9 |
| Vivian Franklin | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -5.1 |
* = starter