Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | California Golden Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 0.8% | 99.2% | +37.6 | ✓ (3.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 3.0% | 97.0% | +38.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 1.1% | 98.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.2% | 99.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 0.2% | 99.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: California Golden Bears +41 (91-50). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nora Perez * | 32 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Gabby Robinson * | 32 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Vanessa McManus * | 28 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | - |
| Alana Goosby * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Charish Thompson * | 16 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Avery Knapp | 17 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Gillian Bears | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Arissa Garcia | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Katie Peiffer | 8 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Vivian Franklin | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Jordan Billing | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
California Golden Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliyahna Morris * | 28 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Lulu Twidale * | 26 | 7-13 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Mjracle Sheppard * | 25 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Taylor Barnes * | 22 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Sakima Walker * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Gisella Maul | 20 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Naya Ojukwu | 18 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Lola Donez | 15 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Anastasia Drosouni | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Grace McCallop | 7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Isis Johnson-Musah | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Sofia Bowes | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter