Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Fullerton Titans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.1% | 96.9% | +25.3 | ✓ (6.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 9.2% | 90.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 3.3% | 96.7% | +18.6 | ✓ (13.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 1.8% | 98.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Fullerton Titans +32 (73-41). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charish Thompson * | 33 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 5-8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | -13.2 |
| Alana Goosby * | 32 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -23.5 |
| Dulci Vail * | 26 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -12.8 |
| Katie Peiffer * | 21 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -19.3 |
| Avery Knapp * | 15 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | -6.8 |
| Vivian Franklin | 25 | 1-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | -7.5 |
| Arissa Garcia | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -4 | -13.3 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6.0 |
| Gillian Bears | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -14.6 |
Cal State Fullerton Titans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Maxwell * | 29 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +22.4 |
| Dylan Swindle * | 23 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +17.8 |
| Cristina Jones * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | +20.6 |
| Kya Pearson * | 21 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +25.7 |
| Maddy Tauro * | 15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | +15.1 |
| Jana Falsdottir | 23 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | +4.0 |
| Madelynn Muniz | 19 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +0.8 |
| Maxine Sutisna | 16 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2.9 |
| Lilliana Petersen | 15 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | -1.7 |
| Mimi Moon | 14 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -15.0 |
| Basak Orhan | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
* = starter