Cal Poly Mustangs

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs

Program History

2025 Team Stats (32 games)

57.6

PPG

60.2

Opp

-2.6

Margin

38.7%

FG%

31.6%

3P%

74.8%

FT%

34.6

RPG

12.4

APG

18.5

68.1

Est. poss./game

55.7

Adj PPG

63.4

Adj Opp PPG

#254

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	744 (#298)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	875 (#264)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +72 elo More →	961 (#221)	HCA +72 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More →	-8.4 (#255)	HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More →	-9.1 (#259)	HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.260 (#260)	-
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -7.9 More →	0.260 (#260)	NetEff -7.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -12.3 More →	0.196 (#255)	AdjNet -12.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -12.6 More →	0.187 (#256)	AdjNet -12.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 55.7 \| AdjD 63.4 More →	0.330 (#254)	AdjO 55.7 \| AdjD 63.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.2 \| AdjD 62.1 More →	0.413 (#223)	AdjO 58.2 \| AdjD 62.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.288 (#261)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.303 (#258)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 129 \| GP 30 More →	843 (#290)	RD 129 \| GP 30

2025 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2024-11-06	vs	UC Merced Bobcats	W	72 - 40
2024-11-09	@	USC Trojans	L	35 - 90
2024-11-12	@	Montana State Bobcats	L	57 - 75
2024-11-14	@	Montana Lady Griz	W	65 - 55
2024-11-19	vs	Life Pacific Warriors	W	82 - 36
2024-11-23	vs	Idaho Vandals	L	54 - 74
2024-11-25	@	Stanford Cardinal	L	45 - 81
2024-12-05	vs	UC Davis Aggies	L	60 - 66
2024-12-07	@	Cal State Northridge Matadors	W	58 - 45
2024-12-16	@	UCLA Bruins	L	37 - 69
2024-12-20	vs	Seattle U Redhawks	W	67 - 42
2024-12-28	@	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	W	66 - 58
2025-01-02	@	UC Irvine Anteaters	L	38 - 60
2025-01-04	vs	Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine	L	50 - 62
2025-01-09	vs	UC San Diego Tritons	W	61 - 56
2025-01-11	@	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	W	51 - 50
2025-01-16	@	UC Davis Aggies	L	51 - 63
2025-01-18	vs	UC Irvine Anteaters	L	57 - 59
2025-01-25	@	Long Beach State Beach	W	78 - 71
2025-01-30	vs	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	W	51 - 42
2025-02-01	vs	UC Riverside Highlanders	L	56 - 64
2025-02-06	@	Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine	L	43 - 67
2025-02-13	vs	Cal State Fullerton Titans	L	64 - 67
2025-02-15	vs	Cal State Northridge Matadors	W	75 - 34
2025-02-20	@	UC San Diego Tritons	L	49 - 66
2025-02-22	@	UC Riverside Highlanders	L	63 - 74
2025-02-27	vs	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	L	60 - 63
2025-03-01	@	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	W	57 - 51
2025-03-06	@	Cal State Fullerton Titans	W	68 - 62
2025-03-08	vs	Long Beach State Beach	L	64 - 72
2025-03-12	@	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	W	56 - 54
2025-03-13	@	UC San Diego Tritons	L	54 - 59

2025 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Annika Shah	G	32	32.5	13.1	2.5	2.4	0.8	0.0	1.9	12.0	4.9	-9	31	-0.3	-0.4	38.6	38.9	91.1	2.47	51.9	49.2
Mary Carter	G	32	30.9	12.9	5.9	1.0	0.7	1.1	2.3	11.5	7.8	-57	31	-1.8	-2.6	42.7	35.6	82.7	-2.72	53.0	50.4
Sierra Lichtie	F	30	29.3	10.6	6.7	1.6	1.2	0.3	3.3	9.1	8.0	-22	29	-0.8	-1.1	42.7	21.6	85.0	-2.16	51.4	45.6
Sidney Richards	G	28	25.1	5.8	2.9	1.8	1.6	0.2	1.8	5.9	4.5	4	27	0.1	0.3	33.7	17.9	70.8	-0.55	41.9	35.2
Sydney Bourland	G	31	27.2	5.7	4.9	2.3	1.4	0.3	2.7	6.3	5.5	-66	30	-2.2	-3.5	36.2	11.8	63.5	-0.39	40.4	36.7
Ashley Hiraki	G	25	25.6	5.2	2.7	2.4	1.4	0.2	2.6	4.5	4.7	6	24	0.2	0.4	31.0	26.9	75.4	-0.84	46.5	37.2
Nora Perez	F	25	9.2	2.5	1.9	0.3	0.7	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.6	8	25	0.3	1.5	49.1	28.6	47.1	-0.59	51.3	50.9
Gillian Bears	F	19	7.4	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.7	1.8	1.2	-27	19	-1.4	-8.0	52.9	0	77.8	-2.78	56.6	52.9
Gabby Robinson	G	31	12.6	2.1	1.4	0.3	0.4	0.1	1.0	2.7	0.5	-15	30	-0.5	-1.7	31.3	30.4	60.0	-1.31	37.2	35.5
Ana Moleon Hidalgo	G	19	6.3	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.8	1.4	0.5	-5	19	-0.3	-1.8	38.5	12.5	100.0	-1.81	42.8	40.4
Alana Goosby	G	31	12.4	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.5	0.0	1.1	1.6	1.5	-6	29	-0.2	-0.7	22.4	17.6	20.0	-0.34	25.3	25.5
Avery Knapp	F	9	3.7	0.4	1.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.9	0.6	0.7	-12	8	-1.5	-14.6	40.0	0	0.0	-3.51	36.8	40.0
Sadie Cohen	G	3	2.7	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	-	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0	-3.69	0.0	0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

525 located field-goal attempts in 10 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Mary CarterAnnika ShahSierra LichtieSydney BourlandSidney Richards

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	68-122	55.7	136	Sierra Lichtie 29% (40 pts)	Mary Carter 19% (26 pts)	Sydney Bourland 26% (14 misses)	Sierra Lichtie 17% (9 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	63-151	41.7	126	Mary Carter 24% (30 pts)	Sierra Lichtie 19% (24 pts)	Annika Shah 18% (16 misses)	Sydney Bourland 17% (15 misses)
Mid-range left	5-23	21.7	10	Annika Shah 80% (8 pts)	Gabby Robinson 20% (2 pts)	Annika Shah 22% (4 misses)	Sierra Lichtie 22% (4 misses)
Mid-range center	6-21	28.6	12	Sidney Richards 50% (6 pts)	Sierra Lichtie 33% (4 pts)	Sierra Lichtie 33% (5 misses)	Sidney Richards 27% (4 misses)
Mid-range right	13-34	38.2	26	Sierra Lichtie 31% (8 pts)	Annika Shah 23% (6 pts)	Annika Shah 29% (6 misses)	Sidney Richards 19% (4 misses)
Left corner 3	5-19	26.3	15	Mary Carter 60% (9 pts)	Sidney Richards 20% (3 pts)	Mary Carter 36% (5 misses)	Sidney Richards 21% (3 misses)
Right corner 3	7-15	46.7	21	Annika Shah 29% (6 pts)	Mary Carter 29% (6 pts)	Annika Shah 38% (3 misses)	Sierra Lichtie 25% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left	22-63	34.9	66	Mary Carter 45% (30 pts)	Annika Shah 18% (12 pts)	Annika Shah 32% (13 misses)	Mary Carter 27% (11 misses)
Above-break 3 center	6-33	18.2	18	Annika Shah 67% (12 pts)	Mary Carter 33% (6 pts)	Mary Carter 52% (14 misses)	Annika Shah 19% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 right	24-44	54.5	72	Annika Shah 46% (33 pts)	Mary Carter 33% (24 pts)	Annika Shah 45% (9 misses)	Mary Carter 35% (7 misses)