Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.4% | 93.6% | +18.4 | ✓ (6.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.3% | 89.7% | +11.9 | ✓ (0.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 3.7% | 96.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.9% | 95.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +12 (63-51). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika Shah | 35 | 3-13 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +4.9 |
| Mary Carter | 34 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | -3.4 |
| Sierra Lichtie | 34 | 5-12 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | -0.5 |
| Ashley Hiraki | 28 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +6.2 |
| Sidney Richards | 24 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | -11.8 |
| Sydney Bourland | 22 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10.0 |
| Gabby Robinson | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +4.9 |
| Nora Perez | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.7 |
| Gillian Bears | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Avery Knapp | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Alana Goosby | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.6 |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tova Sabel | 36 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +9.0 |
| Nya Epps | 31 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -9.1 |
| Mazatlan Harris | 30 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | +9.8 |
| Megan Norris | 30 | 8-13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +10.0 |
| Sydney Burns | 27 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | +11.7 |
| Ryann Bennett | 18 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -8.4 |
| Ally Fitzgerald | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6.6 |
| Clara Glad | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Victoria Baker | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | +5.4 |
| Avery Sussex | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -3.6 |
| Bria Shine | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.5 |
| Sahana Kanagasabay | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
* = starter