Model Predictions
| Model | UC Riverside Highlanders | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.7% | 48.3% | -5.8 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | +0.3 | ✗ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -8 (56-64). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
UC Riverside Highlanders
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makayla Rose * | 39 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | -5.9 |
| Shelley Duchemin * | 34 | 6-11 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +4.2 |
| Seneca Hackley * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 9 | +6.7 |
| Esther Matarranz * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | +5.7 |
| Zoe Tillery * | 19 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | -3.2 |
| Kaylani Polk | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | +7.1 |
| Gemma Cutler | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Hannah Wickstrom | 11 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Maya Chocano | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | +0.5 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Bourland * | 35 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 6 | -3.9 |
| Annika Shah * | 34 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Sierra Lichtie * | 34 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -7.1 |
| Ashley Hiraki * | 33 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 7-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | -4.9 |
| Mary Carter * | 33 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1 | -15.9 |
| Gabby Robinson | 19 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | +4.5 |
| Alana Goosby | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | +4.2 |
* = starter