Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.8% | 26.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 93.0% | 7.0% | -14.2 | ✓ (1.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 87.3% | 12.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 91.4% | 8.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.4% | 5.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 76.4% | 23.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors -13 (45-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Lichtie | 36 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 13 | -3.9 |
| Mary Carter | 36 | 7-16 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 13 | -4.0 |
| Annika Shah | 33 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +8.8 |
| Sydney Bourland | 29 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Sidney Richards | 21 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | -4.9 |
| Alana Goosby | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Ashley Hiraki | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Gabby Robinson | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.2 |
| Nora Perez | 6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +2.7 |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erica Adams | 40 | 2-12 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 2 | -5.1 |
| Kayla Hopson | 36 | 2-12 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -1 | +3.4 |
| Morgan Edwards | 25 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +0.1 |
| Kelly Tumlin | 24 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Jenna Kilty | 23 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Yves Cox | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -3.2 |
| Alondra Lizama | 15 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Laini Dahlin | 10 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | -10.6 |
| Nnenna Orji | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.1 |
| Karsen Marshall | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.1 |
* = starter