Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.5% | 45.5% | -1.0 | ✓ (7.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Southern Utah Thunderbirds -8 (58-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Richards | 39 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | +6.9 |
| Mary Carter | 31 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | +0.3 |
| Ashley Hiraki | 29 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5.4 |
| Sierra Lichtie | 25 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +4.3 |
| Annika Shah | 24 | 9-17 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 9 | +9.7 |
| Sydney Bourland | 24 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +9.2 |
| Alana Goosby | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.6 |
| Nora Perez | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -10.0 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylani Ballena | 32 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -14.2 |
| Sydney Gandy | 29 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -13.1 |
| Samantha Johnston | 28 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Kortney Doman | 27 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +12.3 |
| Ava Uhrich | 25 | 8-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | -6.1 |
| Jaeden Brown | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | -9.4 |
| Ashley Banks | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6.4 |
| Sierra Chambers | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -5.5 |
| Lexi Bull | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -6.8 |
| Charli Kay | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +5.0 |
* = starter