Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.4% | 87.6% | +11.9 | ✗ (12.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.1% | 71.9% | +5.2 | ✗ (6.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -1 (50-51). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika Shah * | 38 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +8.1 |
| Mary Carter * | 37 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Ashley Hiraki * | 35 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 7-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 15 | +3.3 |
| Sierra Lichtie * | 33 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 9 | +8.9 |
| Sydney Bourland * | 22 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Sidney Richards | 24 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Gabby Robinson | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Alana Goosby | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5 |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Burke * | 34 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 3 | -6.8 |
| Zoe Borter * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -3.4 |
| Anya Choice * | 31 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8.7 |
| Alyssa Marin * | 18 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +3.5 |
| Laurel Rockwood * | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6.2 |
| Jessica Grant | 34 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +2.0 |
| Cayla Williams | 26 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Olivia Bradley | 11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.6 |
* = starter