Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.5% | 41.5% | -8.3 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 81.5% | 18.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 89.1% | 10.9% | -11.5 | ✓ (5.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 86.3% | 13.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 89.7% | 10.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 93.7% | 6.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 93.8% | 6.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners -6 (51-57). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Carter * | 35 | 8-16 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 17 | -8.2 |
| Sydney Bourland * | 35 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | -2.0 |
| Annika Shah * | 31 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4.5 |
| Sierra Lichtie * | 31 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 8 | -4.2 |
| Sidney Richards * | 13 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4.3 |
| Ashley Hiraki | 27 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Gabby Robinson | 17 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4.9 |
| Alana Goosby | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3.4 |
| Nora Perez | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.5 |
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Caldwell * | 37 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | +5.9 |
| Garrisen Freeman * | 34 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Ary Dizon * | 30 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -3.7 |
| Melissa Secchiaroli * | 21 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | -0.6 |
| Cheyenne Forney * | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +0.9 |
| Alli Dioli | 31 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | -4.0 |
| Caitie Gingras | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4.1 |
| Marley Langi | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Dylan Tse | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.2 |
| Allysan Tse | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
* = starter