Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.2% | 88.8% | +13.0 | ✓ (4.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.3% | 88.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.0% | 95.0% | +16.2 | ✓ (7.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +9 (51-42). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ary Dizon * | 37 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -2 | +6.1 |
| Garrisen Freeman * | 37 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 4-8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4.3 |
| Taylor Caldwell * | 32 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Melissa Secchiaroli * | 30 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | -8.1 |
| Caitie Gingras * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Trinity Slocum | 21 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Alli Dioli | 7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Allysan Tse | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Cheyenne Forney | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika Shah * | 36 | 2-12 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1 | +4.5 |
| Sydney Bourland * | 36 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 19 | -6.3 |
| Mary Carter * | 33 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 5 | -6.5 |
| Ashley Hiraki * | 32 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -2.0 |
| Sierra Lichtie * | 31 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 | -4.6 |
| Gabby Robinson | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.2 |
| Alana Goosby | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.4 |
| Nora Perez | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Gillian Bears | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.1 |
* = starter