Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | USC Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 0.4% | 99.6% | +44.3 | ✓ (10.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.8% | 98.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 0.0% | 100.0% | +48.1 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 1.5% | 98.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: USC Trojans +55 (90-35). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika Shah * | 32 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -5 | -20.1 |
| Mary Carter * | 31 | 5-17 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -7 | -23.8 |
| Alana Goosby * | 28 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -19.9 |
| Sydney Bourland * | 28 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | -15.3 |
| Sierra Lichtie * | 21 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | -17.2 |
| Gabby Robinson | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -16.4 |
| Nora Perez | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -21.9 |
| Gillian Bears | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Ana Moleon Hidalgo | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | -14.1 |
| Avery Knapp | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
USC Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Watkins * | 29 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +34.3 |
| Kiki Iriafen * | 24 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +14.6 |
| Kennedy Smith * | 21 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 7 | +9.5 |
| Talia von Oelhoffen * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | +27.6 |
| Rayah Marshall * | 17 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | +22.5 |
| Kayleigh Heckel | 19 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | +35.0 |
| Avery Howell | 18 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | +11.0 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +4.1 |
| Malia Samuels | 12 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | -1.4 |
| Aaliyah Gayles | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.3 |
| Clarice Akunwafo | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.2 |
| Rian Forestier | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2.7 |
| Brooklyn Shamblin | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.9 |
* = starter