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Ursinus Bears

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Ursinus Bears
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026 latest available
Catalog

No materialized model snapshot for 2025 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1058 (#162) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1050 (#261) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1050 (#174) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.5 (#126) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -0.1 (#352) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.594 (#405) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +4.9 More → 0.653 (#35) NetEff +4.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.7 More → 0.395 (#403) AdjNet -3.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.0 More → 0.386 (#401) AdjNet -4.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 79.8 More → 0.433 (#406) AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 79.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.9 More → 0.607 (#206) AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.568 (#341) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.583 (#332) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 21 More → 1104 (#167) RD 96 | GP 21

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 vs Immaculata W 99 - 65
2024-11-09 vs Wilkes L 99 - 100
2024-11-13 vs Widener W 90 - 85
2024-11-16 @ Rosemont W 92 - 58
2024-11-23 vs TCNJ L 71 - 97
2024-12-02 vs Goucher W 93 - 81
2024-12-05 @ FDU-Florham L 86 - 94
2024-12-20 @ Coast Guard W 73 - 71
2024-12-21 vs Wartburg L 72 - 79
2024-12-28 @ Brevard W 91 - 67
2024-12-29 @ Randolph-Macon L 54 - 97
2025-01-04 @ Elizabethtown W 93 - 90
2025-01-11 vs Washington Col. W 75 - 69
2025-01-15 @ Haverford W 81 - 59
2025-01-18 vs Gettysburg L 88 - 100
2025-01-22 vs Muhlenberg W 85 - 77
2025-01-25 @ McDaniel W 62 - 61
2025-01-29 @ Swarthmore L 71 - 78
2025-02-01 vs Dickinson W 79 - 72
2025-02-05 @ Franklin & Marshall L 58 - 72
2025-02-08 @ Johns Hopkins W 89 - 79
2025-02-12 vs Haverford W 102 - 89
2025-02-15 vs Swarthmore W 75 - 73
2025-02-19 @ Muhlenberg L 84 - 93
2025-02-22 @ Washington Col. W 83 - 47
2025-02-25 vs Swarthmore W 89 - 67
2025-02-28 @ Franklin & Marshall L 64 - 75

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Trevor Wall - 26 30.8 22.0 3.8 2.5 2.4 0.3 2.2 17.0 12.0 -16 -0.9 -1.7 49.1 34.2 70.2 -0.35 57.6 54.9
Mohamed Toure - 27 26.9 13.7 5.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.0 10.1 10.7 73 2.8 8.3 45.3 33.8 75.0 0.6 58.0 53.5
Nick Nocito - 27 29.3 12.0 4.7 5.6 1.5 0.0 3.4 8.3 12.1 95 3.4 10.2 48.2 30.5 81.4 1.6 60.2 53.8
Luke Nieman - 26 22.1 8.9 3.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 7.0 5.0 42 1.8 8.3 41.0 36.6 90.6 0.73 58.6 55.2
Marlin Wise - 24 23.6 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.8 5.8 7.4 13 1.0 1.6 45.7 33.9 65.0 1.54 55.9 52.5
Jamie Murphy - 27 18.3 5.9 4.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.9 49 2.1 15.4 50.0 30.2 47.8 0.67 54.7 54.8
Matthew Field - 27 13.0 3.9 3.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.9 53 2.4 23.2 50.8 16.7 67.2 0.25 58.6 51.5
Cole Grubbs - 27 22.1 3.9 6.5 0.9 0.2 1.9 1.3 2.5 9.4 40 2.4 5.0 61.8 0 37.7 1.49 56.9 61.8
Patrick Downes - 26 4.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.3 - - - 38.7 23.5 100.0 - 46.1 45.2
Porter Kelly - 26 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 -48 -3.4 -7.4 61.5 60.0 50.0 1.0 79.9 84.6
Will Allain - 26 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 -2 -1.0 -26.8 63.6 50.0 100.0 -1.05 78.7 77.3
Michael Farley - 25 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -1 -1.0 -25.0 66.7 0 50.0 -1.29 65.4 66.7
Nico Gordon - 25 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 -22 -2.4 -51.0 80.0 0 25.0 -0.46 66.6 80.0
Luke Trotta - 23 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -1 -1.0 -13.4 100.0 0 0 -1.05 100.0 100.0
Graham Eilberg - 21 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Jaiden Jakubowski - 14 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG