🐻⬇️🏀

TCNJ

Also known as: TCNJ
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1134 (#65) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1156 (#67) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1179 (#29) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +4.6 (#68) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +4.2 (#287) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.766 (#309) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.5 More → 0.703 (#274) AdjNet +7.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +7.1 More → 0.697 (#273) AdjNet +7.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 72.8 More → 0.614 (#276) AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 72.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 69.8 More → 0.687 (#114) AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 69.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.708 (#197) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.718 (#178) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 105 | GP 22 More → 1245 (#36) RD 105 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs FDU-Florham W 96 - 71
2025-11-09 @ Drew L 78 - 82
2025-11-14 vs CCNY W 106 - 74
2025-11-15 vs Wesleyan (CT) W 92 - 90
2025-11-19 @ DeSales W 65 - 62
2025-11-25 vs Wm. Paterson W 85 - 68
2025-12-03 @ Stockton L 64 - 80
2025-12-06 vs Kean L 64 - 68
2025-12-10 @ Rutgers-Camden W 67 - 36
2025-12-13 vs Ramapo W 76 - 51
2025-12-19 @ Denison W 76 - 66
2025-12-20 vs Emory L 69 - 95
2026-01-07 @ Rowan W 81 - 70
2026-01-10 vs Rutgers-Newark W 87 - 59
2026-01-14 @ Montclair St. L 72 - 76
2026-01-17 vs New Jersey City W 73 - 62
2026-01-21 @ Wm. Paterson W 74 - 51
2026-01-24 @ Kean W 81 - 77
2026-01-28 vs Stockton W 84 - 82
2026-01-31 @ Ramapo W 85 - 59
2026-02-04 vs Rutgers-Camden W 79 - 68
2026-02-07 @ Rutgers-Newark W 75 - 63

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Nick Koch - 22 34.9 22.4 4.9 5.1 1.4 0.1 3.0 17.2 13.7 12 0.6 2.4 47.0 32.1 82.8 0.01 57.0 51.7
Matthew Solomon - 22 32.9 13.6 11.3 3.0 1.0 0.4 1.7 10.3 17.2 18 0.9 3.8 51.1 32.0 64.2 1.92 57.1 54.6
Jonathan Okocha - 22 29.0 10.3 3.9 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.0 8.2 7.2 9 0.5 2.4 36.1 34.6 80.3 -0.94 54.6 49.2
David Alexandre - 18 28.4 9.3 4.1 2.8 1.8 0.1 1.6 9.1 7.6 16 1.1 5.3 39.3 27.7 56.7 2.48 47.7 46.3
Mason Mangione - 22 13.6 5.3 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 4.3 2.6 20 1.1 14.7 40.0 39.3 66.7 0.59 58.3 57.4
Khalid Bakare - 21 18.9 4.8 4.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.9 6.7 -5 -0.3 -1.7 54.3 18.2 71.4 -0.11 57.4 55.6
Lucas Dipasupil - 20 12.0 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.8 4.2 3.2 67 3.9 45.1 41.7 32.5 77.8 2.79 51.2 49.4
Daniel Yarus - 19 16.2 4.5 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 4.5 3.0 -20 -1.2 -15.3 34.1 23.8 80.0 -0.3 46.4 42.9
Anthony Milligan - 16 11.2 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 3.0 2.5 34 2.3 17.5 35.4 27.3 42.9 0.03 45.0 44.8
Jordan Robinson - 19 11.8 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.1 3.3 2.5 -39 -2.4 -69.7 37.1 15.0 60.0 -2.9 41.4 39.5
Connor Howard - 13 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 12 1.0 35.1 40.0 41.7 50.0 1.65 52.8 52.5
Nick Seeloch - 5 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 -1 -0.2 -7.0 60.0 100.0 33.3 -1.31 63.3 70.0
Jaydis McFadden - 9 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 8 1.0 43.9 20.0 0.0 50.0 0.29 37.2 20.0
Leo Hinshillwood - 9 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 1 0.1 6.6 25.0 14.3 0 -1.11 31.2 31.2
Terrance Wood - 10 3.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.2 2 0.2 15.7 40.0 0 25.0 -0.86 35.2 40.0
Andrew Kaminski - 9 3.3 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 -0.6 -11 -1.4 -91.3 0.0 0.0 0 -0.66 0.0 0.0
Riley Gray - 3 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -5 -1.7 -64.9 0 0 0 -0.8 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG