Swarthmore
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1067 (#149) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1121 (#106) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1056 (#157) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.3 (#125) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.6 (#473) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.592 (#406) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.793 (#23) | NetEff +10.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.571 (#330) | AdjNet +2.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.564 (#329) | AdjNet +2.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.534 (#329) | AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 70.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.481 (#455) | AdjO 70.4 | AdjD 71.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.485 (#413) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.486 (#418) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1076 (#240) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Albertus Magnus | W | 71 - 64 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Neumann | W | 99 - 74 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Penn St. Harrisburg | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Stockton | L | 74 - 81 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Marymount (VA) | W | 78 - 67 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Albright | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Misericordia | L | 64 - 70 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Johns Hopkins | L | 69 - 76 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Farmingdale St. | L | 72 - 87 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Widener | W | 91 - 80 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Salisbury | L | 48 - 66 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Mary Washington | L | 49 - 70 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Dickinson | W | 88 - 78 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Muhlenberg | W | 74 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | McDaniel | W | 55 - 46 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Washington Col. | W | 71 - 68 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Gettysburg | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Ursinus | L | 73 - 82 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Muhlenberg | W | 61 - 59 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Haverford | W | 63 - 53 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Franklin & Marshall | L | 71 - 86 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Randall | - | 1 | 33.0 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 76 | 4.8 | 30.1 | 65.0 | 100.0 | 66.7 | 2.02 | 68.0 | 67.5 |
| Eddie Paquette | - | 19 | 25.2 | 15.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 11.6 | 10.8 | -35 | -1.8 | -9.0 | 43.6 | 36.7 | 73.8 | 1.73 | 55.8 | 51.1 |
| Zander Jimenez | - | 12 | 25.3 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 5.9 | -92 | -7.1 | -31.7 | 39.1 | 24.5 | 82.5 | -0.41 | 49.8 | 44.0 |
| Chris Henderson | - | 1 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 104 | 5.8 | 39.6 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 80.0 | 0.52 | 45.1 | 35.0 |
| Jordan Spencer | - | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 127 | 7.1 | 48.0 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 3.89 | 43.1 | 36.4 |
| Antwone George | - | 1 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 11 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 2.64 | 68.3 | 75.0 |
| Kaden Bates | - | 1 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 139 | 8.7 | 66.4 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 2.89 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Jadon Burgess | - | 1 | 24.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 86 | 5.7 | 34.8 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.79 | 68.0 | 60.0 |
| Brady Kageyama | - | 19 | 20.4 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 4.7 | -55 | -2.8 | -19.9 | 38.5 | 37.0 | 90.2 | 0.69 | 54.4 | 47.0 |
| Cal Hanson | - | 19 | 22.2 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | -23 | -1.1 | -8.9 | 43.5 | 25.6 | 84.6 | 0.44 | 52.6 | 48.3 |
| Devin Burger | - | 18 | 22.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | -18 | -0.9 | -5.6 | 39.1 | 29.4 | 60.0 | 1.98 | 47.3 | 45.7 |
| Nyle Coleman | - | 19 | 18.7 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 3.1 | -40 | -2.0 | -14.3 | 36.8 | 37.5 | 61.9 | -0.13 | 46.7 | 44.7 |
| Maurice Davis | - | 1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 42 | 2.1 | 25.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Matthew Maloney | - | 18 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | -46 | -2.4 | -27.8 | 34.0 | 23.9 | 60.7 | 0.09 | 42.7 | 39.5 |
| Jonathan Stump | - | 17 | 15.0 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | -100 | -5.9 | -66.3 | 43.0 | 31.0 | 41.7 | -4.07 | 48.2 | 48.3 |
| David Reed IV | - | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | -29 | -1.6 | -21.3 | 20.0 | 0 | 60.0 | -1.38 | 34.7 | 20.0 |
| Caleb Aurelien | - | 19 | 26.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 7.2 | -66 | -3.3 | -16.0 | 34.2 | 25.7 | 73.3 | -0.54 | 47.0 | 40.4 |
| Jayson Fain | - | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 26 | 2.6 | 266.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 1.38 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Ryan Chu | - | 19 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -37 | -1.9 | -27.2 | 37.5 | 31.4 | 100.0 | 1.45 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Jack Guevara | - | 13 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -13 | -0.9 | -16.0 | 50.0 | 55.6 | 71.4 | -0.4 | 66.4 | 63.9 |
| Andrew Park | - | 19 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -2 | -0.1 | -2.0 | 47.1 | 44.4 | 50.0 | -1.17 | 53.5 | 52.9 |
| Justin Leddo | - | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | -39 | -2.3 | -43.4 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.76 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Jackson Scott | - | 2 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Isaac Wright-Muller | - | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.36 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Dominic Greaves | - | 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -4 | -1.0 | -38.7 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.36 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Isaiah Luckie | - | 9 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 11 | 1.2 | 16.9 | 22.2 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 0.48 | 38.7 | 27.8 |
| Quaye Agoyo | - | 10 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -7 | -0.6 | -12.7 | 25.0 | 28.6 | 0 | -1.9 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Kobi Gyan Jr. | - | 2 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -3 | -1.0 | -32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Colin Mitchell | - | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 58 | 3.9 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.26 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Owen Pottenburgh | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 74 | 4.4 | 205.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Van Antwerp | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Pulliam | - | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aaron Weiss | - | 1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -6 | -3.0 | -142.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG