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Elizabethtown

Also known as: Elizabethtown
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1130 (#70) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1153 (#69) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1111 (#78) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.7 (#128) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -0.1 (#351) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.453 (#499) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.4 More → 0.275 (#475) AdjNet -8.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.8 More → 0.265 (#478) AdjNet -8.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 81.0 More → 0.368 (#466) AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 81.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 74.1 More → 0.586 (#234) AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 74.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.589 (#320) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.601 (#319) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1216 (#56) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-09 vs Franklin & Marshall W 68 - 59
2025-11-11 @ Messiah W 88 - 72
2025-11-15 vs Rosemont W 94 - 65
2025-11-19 vs Moravian L 78 - 79
2025-11-22 vs Susquehanna W 82 - 58
2025-11-25 vs Lebanon Valley W 92 - 89
2025-12-03 @ Drew W 95 - 93
2025-12-06 @ Goucher W 64 - 63
2025-12-14 @ Shenandoah W 68 - 65
2025-12-16 vs Immaculata W 88 - 71
2026-01-03 @ Ursinus W 95 - 76
2026-01-07 vs Scranton L 62 - 74
2026-01-10 @ Wilkes L 69 - 87
2026-01-14 @ Juniata L 71 - 79
2026-01-17 vs Lycoming W 86 - 66
2026-01-21 vs Catholic L 70 - 87
2026-01-24 @ Susquehanna W 72 - 68
2026-01-28 @ Moravian L 77 - 84
2026-01-31 vs Goucher W 81 - 65
2026-02-04 vs Drew W 98 - 93
2026-02-07 @ Scranton W 79 - 72

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Austin Finarelli - 21 33.8 21.6 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.1 1.7 16.2 14.9 153 7.3 27.5 47.4 31.4 72.3 0.92 56.6 52.1
Woody Machado - 21 30.4 14.0 6.9 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.8 10.5 12.4 140 6.1 27.2 45.5 28.6 75.5 2.35 56.1 50.5
Zuri Harris - 19 22.8 11.4 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.2 1.7 9.7 6.6 37 1.9 12.3 42.2 36.6 65.5 2.11 54.6 53.2
EJ Finney - 21 30.9 9.4 4.7 4.6 1.6 0.5 2.7 7.1 11.0 95 4.5 19.3 52.7 52.9 66.0 0.26 58.0 55.7
Anthony Lilly - 21 19.5 6.6 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 5.7 5.0 96 4.6 29.4 46.2 27.6 80.0 0.95 53.1 49.6
Reese Ziegler - 20 24.6 6.0 3.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.7 5.2 6.5 92 4.6 21.7 35.0 25.4 73.3 -1.36 48.9 42.2
Ben Stanton - 21 18.4 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 5.0 3.6 20 1.0 6.4 36.5 31.8 78.6 2.23 51.7 49.5
Crew Wells - 21 11.8 2.7 2.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.1 3.3 24 1.1 8.9 56.8 100.0 50.0 0.49 57.8 58.0
Brandon Ascione - 13 6.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.5 -16 -1.3 -75.3 30.4 31.2 83.3 -2.49 51.3 41.3
Augie Brody - 17 4.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.3 -3 -0.2 -4.3 43.8 16.7 100.0 -2.53 51.8 48.4
Rohan Chappali - 7 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.0 - - - 33.3 16.7 50.0 - 40.5 38.9
Dylan Handley - 7 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 - - - 66.7 66.7 0 - 100.0 100.0
Chikezie Emmanuel - 6 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 - - - 0.0 0 75.0 - 54.3 0.0
Kaiden Robinson - 14 3.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 -19 -1.5 -201.8 9.1 20.0 50.0 0.4 19.6 13.6
Luis Guzman - 7 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 0.0 - 41.0 50.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG