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North Carolina

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History
Coach: Hubert Davis

2026 Team Stats (33 games)

79.7
PPG
71.6
Opp
+8.1
Margin
47.1%
FG%
34.2%
3P%
68.2%
FT%
38.2
RPG
16.0
APG
9.6
TO
78.9
Pace
84.3
AdjO
66.4
AdjD
#27
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1221 (#38) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1283 (#23) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1052 (#104) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +17.5 (#27) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +25.7 (#45) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.774 (#38) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +31.9 More → 0.960 (#19) NetEff +31.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +23.8 More → 0.940 (#24) AdjNet +23.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +24.1 More → 0.942 (#24) AdjNet +24.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 84.3 | AdjD 66.4 More → 0.836 (#27) AdjO 84.3 | AdjD 66.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 70.7 More → 0.657 (#63) AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 70.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.927 (#35) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.898 (#37) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 114 | GP 33 More → 1290 (#33) RD 114 | GP 33

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Central Arkansas Bears W 94 - 54
2025-11-07 vs Kansas Jayhawks W 87 - 74
2025-11-11 vs Radford Highlanders W 89 - 74
2025-11-14 vs North Carolina Central Eagles W 97 - 53
2025-11-18 vs Navy Midshipmen W 73 - 61
2025-11-25 vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies W 85 - 70
2025-11-27 vs Michigan State Spartans L 58 - 74
2025-12-02 @ Kentucky Wildcats W 67 - 64
2025-12-07 vs Georgetown Hoyas W 81 - 61
2025-12-13 vs South Carolina Upstate Spartans W 80 - 62
2025-12-16 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers W 77 - 58
2025-12-20 @ Ohio State Buckeyes W 71 - 70
2025-12-22 vs East Carolina Pirates W 99 - 51
2025-12-30 vs Florida State Seminoles W 79 - 66
2026-01-03 @ SMU Mustangs L 83 - 97
2026-01-10 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 87 - 84
2026-01-14 @ Stanford Cardinal L 90 - 95
2026-01-17 @ California Golden Bears L 78 - 84
2026-01-21 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 91 - 69
2026-01-24 @ Virginia Cavaliers W 85 - 80
2026-01-31 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 91 - 75
2026-02-02 vs Syracuse Orange W 87 - 77
2026-02-07 vs Duke Blue Devils W 71 - 68
2026-02-10 @ Miami Hurricanes L 66 - 75
2026-02-14 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 79 - 65
2026-02-17 @ NC State Wolfpack L 58 - 82
2026-02-21 @ Syracuse Orange W 77 - 64
2026-02-23 vs Louisville Cardinals W 77 - 74
2026-02-28 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 89 - 82
2026-03-03 vs Clemson Tigers W 67 - 63
2026-03-07 @ Duke Blue Devils L 61 - 76
2026-03-12 vs Clemson Tigers L 79 - 80
2026-03-19 vs VCU Rams L 78 - 82

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Wilson C. Wilson - 24 31.5 19.8 9.4 2.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 12.2 20.6 162 7.7 10.9 57.8 25.9 71.3 1.12 63.7 59.0
H. Veesaar H. Veesaar - 31 31.4 17.0 8.7 2.1 0.6 1.2 1.7 11.0 16.9 263 12.5 17.8 60.8 42.6 61.5 2.29 67.1 66.7
S. Trimble S. Trimble - 24 32.5 14.0 3.8 3.0 1.3 0.2 1.4 10.2 10.7 80 6.2 9.0 47.1 28.6 66.7 0.42 55.6 50.8
L. Bogavac L. Bogavac - 33 24.4 9.8 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 1.2 8.2 5.5 152 7.2 13.2 40.2 34.9 73.6 1.17 53.4 49.8
J. Stevenson J. Stevenson F 33 25.8 8.1 4.4 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 5.6 8.2 163 7.8 15.0 47.0 29.5 74.2 1.15 59.3 54.1
D. Dixon D. Dixon - 33 22.3 6.5 2.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 5.7 5.1 43 1.8 6.0 36.5 39.7 81.8 -0.37 52.8 49.7
Jonathan Powell Jonathan Powell G 33 16.4 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 4.2 3.9 95 4.5 12.6 38.1 36.5 48.3 0.69 52.1 51.8
Kyan. Evans Kyan. Evans G 33 17.6 4.0 1.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.9 132 6.3 13.0 32.8 30.5 69.2 0.98 45.9 44.5
Z. High Z. High - 29 9.1 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.7 4.1 -25 -1.4 -11.6 48.1 18.8 67.6 -0.33 54.4 50.0
I. Denis I. Denis - 10 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 0 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 -0.08 63.8 64.3
Jaydon Young Jaydon Young G 31 7.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.9 1.1 40 1.8 11.5 30.0 28.3 75.0 0.33 43.3 40.8
E. Smith E. Smith - 5 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 0 0.0 0.0 66.7 0 75.0 0.0 73.5 66.7
J. Brown J. Brown - 9 5.6 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 2.7 7 2.3 35.8 75.0 0 38.5 0.05 56.6 75.0
E. Davis E. Davis - 6 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 -70 -4.1 -18.2 25.0 25.0 0 -1.07 37.5 37.5
I. Matlekovic I. Matlekovic - 4 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2 0.5 11.2 100.0 0 0 0.03 100.0 100.0
J. Holbrook J. Holbrook - 5 1.6 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 50.0 0.0 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG