Model Predictions
| Model | VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.2% | 48.8% | -2.0 | ✓ (2.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | +6.9 | ✗ (10.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -4 (78-82). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
VCU Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Djokovic * | 38 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 13 | +10.0 |
| Brandon Jennings * | 34 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | +9.4 |
| Nyk Lewis * | 31 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 6-7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 18 | +2.8 |
| Barry Evans * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -15.5 |
| Jadrian Tracey * | 15 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -8.7 |
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 40 | 13-23 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 18 | +8.0 |
| Michael Belle | 31 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | +1.0 |
| Tyrell Ward | 13 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.6 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble * | 43 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 4-7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 22 | +3.6 |
| Henri Veesaar * | 42 | 9-18 | 3-6 | 5-9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 20 | +15.5 |
| Derek Dixon * | 41 | 4-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +0.3 |
| Luka Bogavac * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Jarin Stevenson * | 31 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | -8.9 |
| Jonathan Powell | 20 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Zayden High | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +5.7 |
| Jaydon Young | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Kyan. Evans | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.8 |
* = starter