Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.1% | 19.9% | -12.3 | ✗ (15.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 84.0% | 16.0% | -9.1 | ✗ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 87.7% | 12.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 88.2% | 11.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 88.4% | 11.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +3 (71-68). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam. Boozer * | 38 | 10-21 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +0.4 |
| Isaiah Evans * | 34 | 4-14 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +3.4 |
| Caleb Foster * | 34 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | -17.4 |
| Dame Sarr * | 33 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | -2.6 |
| Patrick Ngongba * | 16 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -4.3 |
| Maliq Brown | 26 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8.0 |
| Cay. Boozer | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Nikolas Khamenia | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson * | 40 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 20 | +14.7 |
| Henri Veesaar * | 35 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 | +10.3 |
| Derek Dixon * | 33 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 | +1.0 |
| Seth Trimble * | 32 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 5-8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +9.1 |
| Jarin Stevenson * | 25 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +14.1 |
| Jonathan Powell | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +7.8 |
| Luka Bogavac | 13 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | +4.8 |
| Kyan. Evans | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +11.5 |
| Jaydon Young | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.8 |
* = starter