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2025-12-20

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Ohio State Buckeyes Spread Result
Elo 41.6% 58.4% -
Bradley-Terry 59.6% 40.4% -
Margin 37.2% 62.8% +2.9 (3.9 off)
Pythagorean 47.5% 52.5% -
Efficiency 92.6% 7.4% -
Adjusted Efficiency 47.8% 52.2% -
Log Adjusted 47.8% 52.2% -
Points Off/Def 42.4% 57.6% -

Actual: Ohio State Buckeyes -1 (70-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
S. Trimble 36 6-13 3-5 2-3 2 3 0 0 1 17 8 -2.6
C. Wilson 34 9-16 0-0 2-5 15 2 0 3 2 20 22 -10.5
H. Veesaar 32 7-12 2-5 1-3 10 5 0 1 2 17 19 +4.6
J. Stevenson 27 3-7 0-4 0-0 5 2 2 1 0 6 9 -4.7
D. Dixon 24 1-5 1-3 0-0 2 4 1 0 1 3 4 -2.9
Kyan. Evans 16 0-2 0-2 0-0 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 +0.5
J. Powell 15 1-2 1-2 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 +2.7
L. Bogavac 13 0-3 0-3 2-2 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 -0.9
J. Young 3 1-3 1-3 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 +3.8

Ohio State Buckeyes

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
B. Thornton 37 7-16 0-4 2-3 4 4 2 2 0 16 12 +0.7
D. Royal 36 6-12 2-2 4-6 8 2 1 1 0 18 18 +4.5
J. Mobley Jr. 32 3-11 2-6 5-5 3 4 1 0 0 13 10 +4.7
C. Tilly 28 4-9 0-3 4-4 10 3 0 0 1 12 15 +6.2
A. Bynum 27 5-11 0-2 1-1 6 1 1 0 2 11 6 -3.1
B. Noel 13 0-3 0-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -2.1
C. White 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 +5.4
I. Njegovan 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 +4.7
G. Cupps 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 +2.6
T. Chatman 3 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3.8

* = starter