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North Carolina

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History
Coach: Hubert Davis

2022 Team Stats (13 games)

79.1
PPG
71.5
Opp
+6.6
Margin
45.2%
FG%
35.3%
3P%
74.1%
FT%
41.7
RPG
16.2
APG
11.2
TO
81.5
Pace

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1392 (#44) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1503 (#13) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 1213 (#4) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +39.2 (#19) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → +31.6 (#6) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.602 (#42) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +11.0 More → 0.769 (#42) NetEff +11.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +11.7 More → 0.794 (#24) AdjNet +11.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +11.8 More → 0.796 (#24) AdjNet +11.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.9 | AdjD 64.5 More → 0.788 (#6) AdjO 78.9 | AdjD 64.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.944 (#11) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.935 (#10) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 83 | GP 37 More → 1353 (#11) RD 83 | GP 37

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-09 vs Loyola Maryland Greyhounds W 83 - 67
2021-11-12 vs Brown Bears W 94 - 87
2021-11-16 @ Charleston Cougars W 94 - 83
2021-11-20 vs Purdue Boilermakers L 84 - 93
2021-11-21 vs Tennessee Volunteers L 72 - 89
2021-11-23 vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs W 72 - 53
2021-12-01 vs Michigan Wolverines W 72 - 51
2021-12-05 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 79 - 62
2021-12-11 vs Elon Phoenix W 80 - 63
2021-12-14 vs Furman Paladins W 74 - 61
2021-12-18 @ Kentucky Wildcats L 69 - 98
2021-12-21 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers W 70 - 50
2022-01-02 @ Boston College Eagles W 91 - 65
2022-01-15 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 88 - 65
2022-01-18 @ Miami Hurricanes L 57 - 85
2022-01-22 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons L 76 - 98
2022-01-24 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 78 - 68
2022-01-26 vs Boston College Eagles W 58 - 47
2022-01-29 vs NC State Wolfpack W 100 - 80
2022-02-01 @ Louisville Cardinals W 90 - 83
2022-02-05 vs Duke Blue Devils L 67 - 87
2022-02-08 @ Clemson Tigers W 79 - 77
2022-02-12 vs Florida State Seminoles W 94 - 74
2022-02-16 vs Pittsburgh Panthers L 67 - 76
2022-02-19 @ Virginia Tech Hokies W 65 - 57
2022-02-21 vs Louisville Cardinals W 70 - 63
2022-02-26 @ NC State Wolfpack W 84 - 74
2022-02-28 vs Syracuse Orange W 88 - 79
2022-03-05 @ Duke Blue Devils W 94 - 81
2022-03-10 vs Virginia Cavaliers W 63 - 43
2022-03-11 vs Virginia Tech Hokies L 59 - 72
2022-03-17 vs Marquette Golden Eagles W 95 - 63
2022-03-19 @ Baylor Bears W 93 - 86
2022-03-25 @ UCLA Bruins W 73 - 66
2022-03-27 vs Saint Peter's Peacocks W 69 - 49
2022-04-02 @ Duke Blue Devils W 81 - 77
2022-04-04 @ Kansas Jayhawks L 69 - 72

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. LaRavia J. LaRavia - 1 37.0 31.0 10.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 47.0 - - - 0 0 0 1.35 0 0
A. Hunter A. Hunter G 1 36.0 21.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.0 307 9.0 11.5 0 0 0 1.63 0 0
B. Manek B. Manek F 26 30.9 15.9 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.8 1.5 6.2 17.4 300 7.7 10.3 51.9 44.7 79.5 2.29 115.5 64.8
A. Bacot A. Bacot - 37 31.3 15.8 12.8 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.9 4.4 26.4 337 8.6 11.3 60.2 0.0 60.0 2.13 147.4 60.2
RJ Davis RJ Davis - 37 33.7 13.7 4.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 16.3 313 8.0 9.9 38.7 33.3 84.6 2.19 132.5 45.8
Caleb Love Caleb Love - 19 33.2 13.5 3.5 3.6 0.5 0.2 2.5 8.7 10.2 268 6.9 8.2 34.5 32.6 81.5 1.43 66.1 43.0
J. Withers J. Withers - 2 28.5 11.0 4.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 0.0 15.0 -31 -1.1 -2.4 0 0 0 0.36 0 0
Dawson Garcia Dawson Garcia - 11 21.7 9.3 5.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.5 3.1 12.3 -21 -1.3 -2.6 35.3 33.3 68.8 -0.51 124.3 39.7
L. Black L. Black - 36 29.9 5.1 4.2 2.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.6 11.1 - - - 46.6 9.1 77.3 1.93 134.5 47.4
Kerwin Walton Kerwin Walton - 16 14.3 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 2.1 3.1 -30 -1.0 -2.7 50.0 39.1 100.0 -0.66 88.6 63.2
P. Johnson P. Johnson G 16 11.5 3.4 2.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 4.9 22 0.9 3.2 52.4 14.3 50.0 0.33 125.7 54.8
C. Garrison C. Garrison G 1 33.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 288 8.7 11.3 0 0 0 1.48 0 0
RJ Duhart RJ Duhart F 1 11.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 - - - 0 0 0 -0.11 0 0
J. Repass J. Repass F 1 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
A. Harris A. Harris G 8 11.1 1.9 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.1 2.0 -61 -2.3 -8.4 0.0 0 0 0.15 750.0 0.0
D. Styles D. Styles G 21 5.5 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 -82 -2.7 -17.2 56.2 20.0 66.7 -0.7 106.8 59.4
J. McKoy J. McKoy - 22 7.1 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 2.4 -89 -3.0 -4.6 15.4 20.0 75.0 -0.29 77.9 19.2
D. Dunn D. Dunn G 15 3.7 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -49 -2.1 -19.7 28.6 66.7 0 0.77 100.0 42.9
D. Farris D. Farris - 6 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 - - - 0 0 50.0 -0.04 284.1 0
J. Watkins J. Watkins - 3 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 0.0
W. Shaver W. Shaver C 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
R. McAdoo R. McAdoo G 1 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
M. Lester M. Lester G 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Pugh J. Pugh G 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -13 -1.1 -9.0 0 0 0 -0.21 0 0
R. Swanson R. Swanson G 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
B. Beeker B. Beeker - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
C. Lebo C. Lebo - 5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 -0.6 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
S. Glushkov S. Glushkov C 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24 3.0 28.4 0 0 0 0.28 0 0
R. Landry R. Landry - 3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.3 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG