Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 16.9% | 83.1% | +8.8 | ✗ (21.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -13 (81-94). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Love | 38 | 4-17 | 2-7 | 12-12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 40 | 9-16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 15 | - |
| B. Manek * | 40 | 7-16 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 19 | - |
| L. Black * | 38 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| A. Bacot * | 30 | 10-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 22 | - |
| P. Johnson | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. McKoy | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Styles | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Dunn | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Banchero * | 38 | 11-26 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 3 | - |
| T. Keels * | 36 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| W. Moore Jr. * | 35 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| AJ Griffin * | 34 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| M. Williams * | 26 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 17 | - |
| J. Roach | 21 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | - |
| T. John | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
* = starter