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2022-03-10

Model Predictions

Model Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 58.5% 41.5% -
Bradley-Terry 35.1% 64.9% -
Margin 19.7% 80.3% +7.7 (12.3 off)
Pythagorean 42.1% 57.9% -
Efficiency 17.8% 82.2% -
Adjusted Efficiency 20.5% 79.5% -
Log Adjusted 20.4% 79.6% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +20 (63-43). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Shedrick 23 4-6 0-0 0-2 5 0 1 1 1 8 8 -
K. Stattmann 13 0-2 0-1 0-0 5 0 0 0 2 0 1 -
M. Poindexter 6 1-1 1-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 -
I. Milicic Jr. 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -
C. McCorkle 3 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -
R. Beekman * 37 1-8 1-2 0-2 4 5 3 2 2 3 7 -
K. Clark * 36 3-9 1-2 0-0 4 4 0 1 3 7 4 -
A. Franklin * 30 1-7 0-2 3-4 4 3 1 1 1 5 6 -
J. Gardner * 29 8-16 0-2 1-1 2 1 0 0 1 17 3 -
F. Caffaro * 17 0-1 0-0 0-0 6 0 0 1 1 0 5 -
T. Murray 3 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Bacot * 33 5-12 0-1 0-0 11 0 3 2 1 10 13 -
L. Black * 32 3-6 0-3 0-0 4 3 3 0 1 6 9 -
C. Love * 32 2-10 2-6 4-5 3 5 0 0 1 10 7 -
RJ Davis * 31 4-13 0-4 0-0 8 6 1 1 2 8 9 -
B. Manek * 28 8-15 3-7 2-2 7 3 1 0 1 21 16 -
J. McKoy 17 2-4 1-2 0-0 5 0 0 0 0 5 6 -
P. Johnson 17 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
D. Dunn 4 0-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -
D. Styles 3 0-1 0-0 1-2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 -
K. Walton 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter