Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.7% | 80.3% | +7.7 | ✓ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +20 (63-43). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Shedrick | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| K. Stattmann | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Poindexter | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| I. Milicic Jr. | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| C. McCorkle | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| R. Beekman * | 37 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | - |
| K. Clark * | 36 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | - |
| A. Franklin * | 30 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| J. Gardner * | 29 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | - |
| F. Caffaro * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| T. Murray | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Bacot * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| L. Black * | 32 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| C. Love * | 32 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 4-5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 31 | 4-13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| B. Manek * | 28 | 8-15 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 16 | - |
| J. McKoy | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| P. Johnson | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| D. Dunn | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| D. Styles | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| K. Walton | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter