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Cal Poly

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: Mike DeGeorge

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 870 (#235) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 940 (#208) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More → 967 (#216) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More → +0.1 (#166) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More → -1.6 (#193) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.574 (#125) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.1 More → 0.498 (#166) AdjNet -0.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.0 More → 0.499 (#166) AdjNet -0.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 58.8 More → 0.504 (#167) AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 58.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.9 More → 0.499 (#170) AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.450 (#193) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.448 (#197) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 133 | GP 28 More → 888 (#240) RD 133 | GP 28

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-12 vs San José State Spartans W 79 - 52
2011-11-16 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 58 - 60
2011-11-19 @ USC Trojans W 42 - 36
2011-11-22 @ UNLV Rebels L 52 - 75
2011-11-25 vs Morgan State Bears W 62 - 61
2011-11-26 @ Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 72 - 55
2011-11-30 vs Sacramento State Hornets W 77 - 51
2011-12-03 vs Saint Mary's Gaels L 54 - 59
2011-12-10 @ San José State Spartans W 47 - 40
2011-12-14 vs Menlo Oaks W 91 - 58
2011-12-17 @ Fresno State Bulldogs W 65 - 46
2011-12-21 @ DePaul Blue Demons L 58 - 63
2011-12-29 vs Hope International Royals W 67 - 61
2012-01-02 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 57 - 58
2012-01-05 @ Long Beach State Beach L 50 - 55
2012-01-07 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 73 - 67
2012-01-14 @ UC Riverside Highlanders L 53 - 60
2012-01-19 vs Long Beach State Beach L 69 - 78
2012-01-26 @ Pacific Tigers L 51 - 61
2012-01-28 @ UC Davis Aggies W 67 - 65
2012-02-04 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 66 - 69
2012-02-09 vs UC Riverside Highlanders W 54 - 52
2012-02-15 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 81 - 94
2012-02-18 @ Northern Colorado Bears L 73 - 81
2012-02-25 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 60 - 68
2012-03-01 vs UC Davis Aggies W 69 - 56
2012-03-03 vs Pacific Tigers W 67 - 38
2012-03-08 vs UC Riverside Highlanders W 66 - 54
2012-03-09 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 52 - 64

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
David Hanson David Hanson F 28 30.9 11.9 5.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 1.5 2.5 16.0 37 24 1.5 2.2 40.8 29.6 50.0 0.34 214.0 46.5
Amaurys Fermin Amaurys Fermin G 28 30.4 10.0 2.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 2.4 2.7 11.5 8 24 0.3 0.5 41.3 32.3 54.5 -1.84 165.9 48.0
Will Taylor Will Taylor F 28 21.4 9.4 6.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.3 2.2 14.0 -7 24 -0.3 -0.6 56.5 0.0 68.4 -1.65 186.2 56.5
Dylan Royer Dylan Royer G 28 22.1 7.9 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.2 9.7 32 24 1.3 2.8 37.1 41.4 75.0 1.55 300.6 54.3
Chris Eversley Chris Eversley F 28 19.4 7.5 4.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 1.3 11.5 -18 24 -0.8 -1.7 43.2 30.0 72.2 -2.37 234.9 47.3
Drake U'u Drake U'u G 21 21.6 6.0 3.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 9.9 95 18 5.3 12.2 42.9 28.6 33.3 4.65 189.3 46.4
Matt Titchenal Matt Titchenal G 15 10.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.5 -23 10 -2.3 -7.3 33.3 0 0 -2.37 416.7 33.3
Will Donahue Will Donahue C 25 15.6 3.2 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 6.0 41 22 1.9 5.3 52.6 0.0 37.5 1.21 179.8 52.6
Jamal Johnson Jamal Johnson G 27 13.7 2.3 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.6 3.4 37 23 1.6 5.1 13.3 28.6 75.0 1.94 167.4 20.0
Kyle Odister Kyle Odister G 21 6.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.9 20 17 1.2 5.6 40.0 25.0 0 -1.17 410.0 50.0
Maliik Love Maliik Love G 28 11.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.4 3.1 -25 23 -1.1 -4.1 63.6 0 100.0 -2.4 188.1 63.6
Jordan Lewis Jordan Lewis F 25 10.8 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2 -32 21 -1.5 -7.5 33.3 0 66.7 -4.96 416.7 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG