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Cal Poly

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: Joe Callero

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 870 (#235) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 940 (#208) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More → 967 (#216) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More → +0.1 (#166) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More → -1.6 (#193) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.574 (#125) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.1 More → 0.498 (#166) AdjNet -0.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.0 More → 0.499 (#166) AdjNet -0.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 58.8 More → 0.504 (#167) AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 58.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.9 More → 0.499 (#170) AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.450 (#193) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.448 (#197) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 133 | GP 28 More → 888 (#240) RD 133 | GP 28

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-12 vs San José State Spartans W 79 - 52
2011-11-16 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 58 - 60
2011-11-19 @ USC Trojans W 42 - 36
2011-11-22 @ UNLV Rebels L 52 - 75
2011-11-25 vs Morgan State Bears W 62 - 61
2011-11-26 @ Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 72 - 55
2011-11-30 vs Sacramento State Hornets W 77 - 51
2011-12-03 vs Saint Mary's Gaels L 54 - 59
2011-12-10 @ San José State Spartans W 47 - 40
2011-12-14 vs Menlo Oaks W 91 - 58
2011-12-17 @ Fresno State Bulldogs W 65 - 46
2011-12-21 @ DePaul Blue Demons L 58 - 63
2011-12-29 vs Hope International Royals W 67 - 61
2012-01-02 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 57 - 58
2012-01-05 @ Long Beach State Beach L 50 - 55
2012-01-07 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 73 - 67
2012-01-14 @ UC Riverside Highlanders L 53 - 60
2012-01-19 vs Long Beach State Beach L 69 - 78
2012-01-26 @ Pacific Tigers L 51 - 61
2012-01-28 @ UC Davis Aggies W 67 - 65
2012-02-04 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 66 - 69
2012-02-09 vs UC Riverside Highlanders W 54 - 52
2012-02-15 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 81 - 94
2012-02-18 @ Northern Colorado Bears L 73 - 81
2012-02-25 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 60 - 68
2012-03-01 vs UC Davis Aggies W 69 - 56
2012-03-03 vs Pacific Tigers W 67 - 38
2012-03-08 vs UC Riverside Highlanders W 66 - 54
2012-03-09 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 52 - 64

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
David Hanson David Hanson F 28 30.9 11.9 5.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 1.5 2.5 16.0 37 24 1.5 2.2 40.8 29.6 50.0 0.34 214.0 46.5
Amaurys Fermin Amaurys Fermin G 28 30.4 10.0 2.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 2.4 2.7 11.5 8 24 0.3 0.5 41.3 32.3 54.5 -1.84 165.9 48.0
Will Taylor Will Taylor F 28 21.4 9.4 6.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.3 2.2 14.0 -7 24 -0.3 -0.6 56.5 0.0 68.4 -1.65 186.2 56.5
Dylan Royer Dylan Royer G 28 22.1 7.9 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.2 9.7 32 24 1.3 2.8 37.1 41.4 75.0 1.55 300.6 54.3
Chris Eversley Chris Eversley F 28 19.4 7.5 4.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 1.3 11.5 -18 24 -0.8 -1.7 43.2 30.0 72.2 -2.37 234.9 47.3
Drake U'u Drake U'u G 21 21.6 6.0 3.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 9.9 95 18 5.3 12.2 42.9 28.6 33.3 4.65 189.3 46.4
Matt Titchenal Matt Titchenal G 15 10.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.5 -23 10 -2.3 -7.3 33.3 0 0 -2.37 416.7 33.3
Will Donahue Will Donahue C 25 15.6 3.2 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 6.0 41 22 1.9 5.3 52.6 0.0 37.5 1.21 179.8 52.6
Jamal Johnson Jamal Johnson G 27 13.7 2.3 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.6 3.4 37 23 1.6 5.1 13.3 28.6 75.0 1.94 167.4 20.0
Kyle Odister Kyle Odister G 21 6.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.9 20 17 1.2 5.6 40.0 25.0 0 -1.17 410.0 50.0
Maliik Love Maliik Love G 28 11.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.4 3.1 -25 23 -1.1 -4.1 63.6 0 100.0 -2.4 188.1 63.6
Jordan Lewis Jordan Lewis F 25 10.8 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2 -32 21 -1.5 -7.5 33.3 0 66.7 -4.96 416.7 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG