Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | +9.1 | ✓ (16.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.0% | 90.0% | +12.1 | ✓ (13.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +26 (77-51). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Eberhard * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Dylan Garrity * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Heath Hoffman * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Konner Veteto * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| John Dickson * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Walter Jackson | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Josh McCarver | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Julian Demalleville | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| J. Estrada | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kendall Groom | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amaurys Fermin * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 | - |
| David Hanson * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Will Taylor * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Drake U'u * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Maliik Love * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Dylan Royer | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Jordan Lewis | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Will Donahue | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Chris Eversley | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Kyle Odister | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jamal Johnson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Matt Titchenal | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter