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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History

2026 Team Stats (37 games)

76.4
PPG
66.2
Opp
+10.2
Margin
38.8%
FG%
30.0%
3P%
71.2%
FT%
37.5
RPG
14.7
APG
17.3
TO
78.7
Est. poss./game
72.8
Adj PPG
63.8
Adj Opp PPG
#80
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1208 (#79) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1182 (#74) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More → 1110 (#52) HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +9.4 (#81) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → +11.7 (#65) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.811 (#71) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +10.9 More → 0.811 (#71) NetEff +10.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.7 More → 0.829 (#85) AdjNet +13.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.8 More → 0.832 (#85) AdjNet +13.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.8 | AdjD 63.8 More → 0.695 (#80) AdjO 72.8 | AdjD 63.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 60.8 More → 0.716 (#46) AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 60.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.759 (#74) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.763 (#72) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 36 More → 1199 (#61) RD 97 | GP 36

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Ball State Cardinals L 66 - 68
2025-11-07 @ Tarleton State Texans W 87 - 77
2025-11-11 @ Missouri Tigers L 75 - 97
2025-11-15 vs Little Rock Trojans W 76 - 67
2025-11-19 @ Central Arkansas Sugar Bears L 58 - 81
2025-11-23 @ Jackson State Lady Tigers W 75 - 69
2025-11-28 vs Houston Cougars W 83 - 66
2025-11-30 @ Kent State Golden Flashes W 74 - 54
2025-12-03 vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles W 68 - 58
2025-12-06 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 78 - 66
2025-12-09 vs Southern Arkansas Muleriders W 97 - 46
2025-12-17 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 79 - 58
2025-12-20 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 74 - 61
2025-12-28 @ Arkansas Razorbacks W 81 - 72
2026-01-01 @ Southern Miss Lady Eagles W 91 - 83
2026-01-03 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 89 - 71
2026-01-08 @ South Alabama Jaguars W 107 - 67
2026-01-10 @ Troy Trojans L 64 - 86
2026-01-15 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 75 - 34
2026-01-17 vs Southern Miss Lady Eagles W 81 - 71
2026-01-21 vs Old Dominion Monarchs W 84 - 55
2026-01-25 vs James Madison Dukes W 74 - 67
2026-01-29 @ Georgia State Panthers W 69 - 61
2026-01-31 @ Georgia Southern Eagles - Preview
2026-02-04 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 78 - 70
2026-02-07 @ Eastern Michigan Eagles L 73 - 76
2026-02-11 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 60 - 69
2026-02-14 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 54 - 62
2026-02-18 @ Texas State Bobcats W 75 - 61
2026-02-21 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 92 - 66
2026-02-24 vs Troy Trojans L 54 - 61
2026-02-27 vs Texas State Bobcats W 87 - 53
2026-03-07 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 76 - 68
2026-03-08 @ Troy Trojans L 73 - 83
2026-03-23 vs Radford Highlanders W 83 - 52
2026-03-27 vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons W 83 - 72
2026-03-30 vs Cleveland State Vikings W 71 - 53
2026-04-01 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 62 - 69

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Zyion Shannon Zyion Shannon G 37 23.5 12.7 3.9 1.2 2.3 0.2 2.4 12.0 6.1 207 31 6.7 12.1 36.3 27.2 77.7 -1.72 47.8 43.3
Crislyn Rose Crislyn Rose G 37 24.7 11.2 2.8 4.6 1.0 0.1 2.6 10.2 6.9 272 31 8.8 14.5 42.2 29.4 81.7 4.65 50.2 46.2
Mia Tarver Mia Tarver G 37 21.0 8.8 2.8 0.9 1.6 0.1 1.2 8.4 4.6 203 31 6.5 12.6 37.6 33.3 45.5 -0.5 51.8 51.8
D'Arrah Allen D'Arrah Allen G 36 16.5 7.8 1.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.5 7.4 2.5 142 30 4.7 12.3 31.3 27.5 88.1 1.34 47.5 41.7
Bella Weary Bella Weary G 37 17.4 7.7 2.9 1.3 1.8 0.0 1.9 6.2 5.8 131 31 4.2 10.0 42.5 31.0 70.7 -0.25 53.3 48.5
Mimi McCollister Mimi McCollister G 35 18.9 7.3 3.4 2.7 1.8 0.1 2.6 6.9 5.9 146 31 4.7 10.2 35.8 32.5 74.6 1.23 47.6 43.6
Marlie Dickerson Marlie Dickerson G 31 22.2 6.1 3.9 1.3 1.9 0.1 1.5 6.1 5.7 209 25 8.4 15.8 35.3 22.2 69.4 0.64 44.4 40.5
Wynter Rogers Wynter Rogers G 37 23.2 6.1 6.1 1.1 1.3 0.5 1.2 5.1 8.8 281 31 9.1 16.3 48.7 0.0 52.9 3.57 50.6 48.7
Aniyah Ruddock Aniyah Ruddock G 37 15.4 5.2 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.9 4.4 2.9 140 31 4.5 11.7 36.0 37.6 75.7 1.8 54.7 51.6
Yves Cox Yves Cox C 33 14.5 3.2 4.6 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 2.5 6.5 97 27 3.6 9.4 61.0 0 25.0 0.03 57.3 61.0
Payton Fields Payton Fields G 25 9.8 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 2.8 1.7 36 23 1.6 6.5 28.6 25.4 87.5 -1.19 42.8 40.0
Allyson Ferguson Allyson Ferguson F 22 6.6 0.6 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.1 1 16 0.1 0.3 60.0 0 33.3 -2.68 57.4 60.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

2567 located field-goal attempts in 37 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Rose17% Rose24% Shannon33% Rose38% McCollister26% Tarver35% Allen24% Tarver26% Ruddock18% Tarver18%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Rose21% Rose21% Rose33% Rogers38% Rose30% Tarver28% Tarver32% Shannon20% Tarver22% Allen21%
Misses: who misses most here

Zyion ShannonCrislyn RoseMia TarverD'Arrah AllenMimi McCollisterWynter RogersAniyah Ruddock

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 263-404 65.1 526 Crislyn Rose 17% (90 pts) Wynter Rogers 16% (86 pts) Crislyn Rose 21% (29 misses) Wynter Rogers 16% (22 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 318-775 41.0 636 Crislyn Rose 24% (150 pts) Zyion Shannon 18% (116 pts) Crislyn Rose 21% (96 misses) Zyion Shannon 18% (83 misses)
Mid-range left 15-36 41.7 30 Zyion Shannon 33% (10 pts) Aniyah Ruddock 13% (4 pts) Crislyn Rose 33% (7 misses) Zyion Shannon 29% (6 misses)
Mid-range center 16-42 38.1 32 Crislyn Rose 38% (12 pts) Wynter Rogers 31% (10 pts) Wynter Rogers 38% (10 misses) Crislyn Rose 23% (6 misses)
Mid-range right 23-50 46.0 46 Mimi McCollister 26% (12 pts) Marlie Dickerson 22% (10 pts) Crislyn Rose 30% (8 misses) Bella Weary 19% (5 misses)
Left corner 3 72-183 39.3 216 Mia Tarver 35% (75 pts) Zyion Shannon 22% (48 pts) Mia Tarver 28% (31 misses) Zyion Shannon 26% (29 misses)
Right corner 3 34-131 26.0 102 D'Arrah Allen 24% (24 pts) Mia Tarver 21% (21 pts) Mia Tarver 32% (31 misses) D'Arrah Allen 25% (24 misses)
Above-break 3 left 100-375 26.7 300 Mia Tarver 26% (78 pts) D'Arrah Allen 14% (42 pts) Zyion Shannon 20% (55 misses) Mia Tarver 17% (46 misses)
Above-break 3 center 33-149 22.1 99 Aniyah Ruddock 18% (18 pts) D'Arrah Allen 15% (15 pts) Mia Tarver 22% (25 misses) Crislyn Rose 16% (19 misses)
Above-break 3 right 122-422 28.9 366 Mia Tarver 18% (66 pts) Aniyah Ruddock 16% (57 pts) D'Arrah Allen 21% (63 misses) Zyion Shannon 18% (54 misses)