Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.1% | 80.9% | +7.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.8% | 59.2% | +4.1 | ✓ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Troy Trojans +10 (83-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wynter Rogers * | 25 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Zyion Shannon * | 21 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -3 | - |
| Crislyn Rose * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Mia Tarver * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Payton Fields * | 17 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| D'Arrah Allen | 21 | 6-13 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Mimi McCollister | 21 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Yves Cox | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Bella Weary | 18 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Aniyah Ruddock | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Ngnawo * | 37 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Zay Dyer * | 31 | 8-13 | 1-1 | 7-9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 26 | - |
| Ashley Baez * | 27 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Rachel Leggett * | 26 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Emani Jenkins * | 25 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Leilani Guion | 16 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Kamesha Moore | 16 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Saniya Jackson | 14 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Shakirah Edwards | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter