Model Predictions
| Model | UL Monroe Warhawks | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.1% | 84.9% | +10.0 | ✓ (2.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.0% | 87.0% | +10.4 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.0% | 89.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +8 (76-68). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcavia Shavers * | 33 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +8.9 |
| Asjah Inniss * | 31 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +5.4 |
| Nakiyah Mays-Prince * | 31 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +15.2 |
| J'Mani Ingram * | 26 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | +6.8 |
| Keshunti Nichols * | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Marissa Gasaway | 28 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 13 | +6.0 |
| Kamille Brown | 21 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -12.3 |
| Jazmine Jackson | 17 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -7.1 |
| Katelyn Chomko | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crislyn Rose * | 28 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Mia Tarver * | 26 | 5-10 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | -10.4 |
| Wynter Rogers * | 26 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | -1.4 |
| Zyion Shannon * | 22 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -1 | -11.5 |
| Payton Fields * | 18 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -13.2 |
| Aniyah Ruddock | 17 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +8.9 |
| D'Arrah Allen | 16 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5.5 |
| Yves Cox | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | +8.1 |
| Mimi McCollister | 15 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | +2.6 |
| Bella Weary | 15 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +5.9 |
| Allyson Ferguson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 |
* = starter