Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Missouri Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.7% | 58.3% | -2.4 | ✓ (24.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.0% | 66.0% | +3.7 | ✓ (18.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 89.7% | 10.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Missouri Tigers +22 (97-75). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyion Shannon * | 31 | 9-23 | 5-13 | 3-5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 9 | - |
| Marlie Dickerson * | 26 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Wynter Rogers * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Crislyn Rose * | 24 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Bella Weary * | 23 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -1 | - |
| D'Arrah Allen | 25 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 9-10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Mia Tarver | 18 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Aniyah Ruddock | 14 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Yves Cox | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Allyson Ferguson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Missouri Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordana Reisma * | 34 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 27 | - |
| Grace Slaughter * | 32 | 10-15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 21 | - |
| Shannon Dowell * | 29 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Abbey Schreacke * | 25 | 5-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Lisa Thompson * | 20 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Jayla Smith | 25 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 22 | - |
| Chloe Sotell | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Reka Toman | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Ma'Riya Vincent | 3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter