Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves

Program History

Coach: Ryan Pannone

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

83.0

PPG

76.5

Opp

+6.5

Margin

45.1%

FG%

32.9%

3P%

73.5%

FT%

41.6

RPG

15.8

APG

14.5

87.2

Pace

80.2

AdjO

80.1

AdjD

#159

Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1005 (#173)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1041 (#137)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More →	1049 (#107)	HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More →	+0.2 (#157)	HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More →	+16.5 (#125)	HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.631 (#95)	-
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +22.8 More →	0.929 (#35)	NetEff +22.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.4 More →	0.513 (#160)	AdjNet +0.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.4 More →	0.512 (#160)	AdjNet +0.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 80.2 \| AdjD 80.1 More →	0.504 (#159)	AdjO 80.2 \| AdjD 80.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.9 \| AdjD 73.5 More →	0.641 (#77)	AdjO 79.9 \| AdjD 73.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.797 (#131)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.770 (#122)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 156 \| GP 30 More →	1111 (#128)	RD 156 \| GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2025-11-03	@	Ohio Bobcats	W	89 - 85
2025-11-07	@	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	L	65 - 90
2025-11-11	@	Missouri State Bears	W	86 - 85
2025-11-15	vs	Christian Brothers Buccaneers	W	95 - 67
2025-11-19	@	Saint Mary's Gaels	L	72 - 85
2025-11-21	@	SMU Mustangs	L	69 - 100
2025-11-24	vs	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	W	74 - 63
2025-11-28	vs	North Dakota State Bison	W	85 - 80
2025-12-02	vs	UT Arlington Mavericks	W	83 - 63
2025-12-13	@	Rice Owls	L	76 - 77
2025-12-17	@	Texas State Bobcats	W	89 - 70
2025-12-20	@	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	W	93 - 86
2025-12-30	vs	Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys	W	107 - 63
2026-01-03	vs	James Madison Dukes	L	74 - 78
2026-01-07	vs	Troy Trojans	W	86 - 74
2026-01-10	vs	Texas State Bobcats	W	83 - 82
2026-01-15	@	South Alabama Jaguars	L	87 - 91
2026-01-22	@	Georgia Southern Eagles	W	85 - 68
2026-01-24	@	Georgia State Panthers	L	81 - 82
2026-01-28	vs	Old Dominion Monarchs	L	71 - 75
2026-01-31	vs	Marshall Thundering Herd	L	61 - 70
2026-02-04	@	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	W	70 - 66
2026-02-07	vs	Bowling Green Falcons	W	91 - 54
2026-02-11	vs	UL Monroe Warhawks	W	103 - 70
2026-02-14	vs	South Alabama Jaguars	L	88 - 92
2026-02-19	@	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	W	79 - 62
2026-02-21	@	UL Monroe Warhawks	W	102 - 94
2026-02-24	vs	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	W	89 - 84
2026-02-27	vs	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	W	81 - 58
2026-03-05	vs	Georgia Southern Eagles	L	77 - 80

2026 Roster

Show Alumni

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Christian Harmon	-	30	28.1	13.0	3.8	2.7	1.0	0.1	2.1	10.2	8.2	-	-	-	39.0	34.5	81.8	-	56.6	52.0
K. Hayman	-	29	22.7	11.6	3.2	2.1	1.1	0.1	1.9	10.6	5.7	-	-	-	40.3	32.7	78.6	-	51.6	49.4
C. Jackson	G	30	27.2	11.1	3.6	4.6	1.1	0.1	2.2	7.5	10.8	0	0.0	0.0	49.8	26.9	70.6	-0.35	58.6	52.9
J. Chammaa	-	20	17.1	10.1	2.2	1.8	0.9	0.1	1.6	5.1	8.5	0	0.0	0.0	42.2	32.7	83.1	-0.17	65.6	51.0
J. Ellingsworth	F	30	22.8	9.9	5.0	0.7	0.8	0.1	1.2	6.8	8.5	-22	-1.0	-5.7	48.8	34.9	75.6	0.12	60.9	56.1
TJ Caldwell	-	30	20.2	8.8	2.7	1.0	0.8	0.2	1.3	7.1	5.0	-72	-3.3	-17.2	37.4	32.2	81.5	-0.06	52.9	46.3
J. Hampton	G	28	25.9	8.1	8.8	1.5	0.9	0.4	1.6	5.5	12.6	15	0.7	3.7	56.5	34.5	76.4	0.25	63.4	59.7
Royal Blue Smith	-	25	12.9	5.4	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.0	1.0	4.1	3.9	14	1.4	58.0	44.7	37.9	56.7	-0.04	57.7	56.8
C. Dioramma	-	23	15.4	5.2	4.2	0.7	0.2	0.4	0.7	3.9	6.1	-16	-1.8	-33.6	50.6	0	63.0	-0.16	54.5	50.6
A. Tounkara	-	30	18.6	4.4	5.6	0.5	0.4	1.1	1.0	3.1	7.9	-29	-1.4	-8.7	63.4	0	36.8	-0.46	60.2	63.4
Fredy-Salam Sylla	-	16	10.2	3.5	1.9	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.8	3.7	1.7	-41	-2.7	-90.6	37.3	17.2	53.8	-0.11	43.3	41.5
Grayson Bennett	F	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
CJ Geathers	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Weston Honeycutt	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tim Matthews	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Rho Omed	F	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG