Model Predictions
| Model | Bowling Green Falcons | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | +1.3 | ✓ (35.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +37 (91-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Bowling Green Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Campbell | 38 | 4-14 | 0-3 | 5-8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| S. Towns | 34 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| J. Shackelford | 31 | 4-12 | 0-5 | 5-7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | - |
| T. Glover II | 25 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| J. Thomas | 22 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. Ruffin | 15 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| M. Wol | 12 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | - |
| A. Goins | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Leach | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| C. Karel | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Kimbrough Jr. | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Jackson | 31 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| C. Harmon | 25 | 6-10 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 13 | - |
| A. Tounkara | 21 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | - |
| J. Ellingsworth | 20 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | - |
| J. Hampton | 20 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| TJ Caldwell | 19 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| C. Dioramma | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| J. Chammaa | 19 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| K. Hayman | 15 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| R. Smith | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| F. Sylla | 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter