Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | South Alabama Jaguars | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.1% | 46.9% | -0.7 | ✗ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: South Alabama Jaguars +4 (91-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 31 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | +12.7 |
| Chandler Jackson | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -7.8 |
| K. Hayman | 28 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 7 | -7.6 |
| R. Smith | 26 | 6-14 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +3.3 |
| Christian Harmon | 24 | 2-9 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +10.1 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 20 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -6.4 |
| Aly Tounkara | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +14.7 |
| Jalen Hampton | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -21.4 |
| TJ Caldwell | 17 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +1.0 |
| Joey Chammaa | 13 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | -15.5 |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaze Harris | 40 | 14-25 | 0-4 | 10-15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 25 | +11.7 |
| Adam Olsen | 40 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +5.8 |
| Jayden Cooper | 38 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +2.9 |
| Hantz Louis Jeune | 34 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +8.4 |
| Randy Brady | 27 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | -5.8 |
| Stephen Williams | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | +2.9 |
| John Broom | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -10.9 |
| JJ Wheat | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -3.7 |
* = starter