Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.9% | 85.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 3.6% | 96.4% | +18.1 | ✓ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +13 (85-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Harmon * | 30 | 8-17 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 | - |
| C. Jackson * | 30 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| TJ Caldwell * | 24 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | - |
| J. Ellingsworth * | 22 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -2.5 |
| A. Tounkara * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -5.3 |
| C. Dioramma | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | -2.5 |
| K. Hayman | 22 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| R. Smith | 18 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | -2.6 |
| J. Hampton | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -2.5 |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dent * | 38 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | +5.9 |
| P. Murauskas * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-2 | 8-10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 19 | +6.6 |
| M. Lewis * | 34 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | -1.3 |
| A. McKeever * | 32 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 30 | +7.8 |
| K. Gad * | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +5.3 |
| L. Campbell | 33 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +2.7 |
| H. Wessels | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2.4 |
| D. Shaw | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +2.8 |
| R. Hawke | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter