Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Missouri State Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.9% | 48.1% | -0.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Missouri State Bears -1 (85-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Harmon * | 35 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | - |
| J. Ellingsworth * | 34 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4.0 |
| C. Jackson * | 27 | 10-11 | 3-3 | 10-12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 24 | - |
| TJ Caldwell * | 27 | 6-15 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | - |
| A. Tounkara * | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +0.9 |
| K. Hayman | 27 | 2-13 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| R. Smith | 20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | +5.0 |
| C. Dioramma | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -2.0 |
| F. Sylla | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Williams Jr. * | 37 | 4-14 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Z. King * | 37 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | -0.0 |
| K. Williams * | 26 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4.0 |
| M. Osei-Bonsu * | 24 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 11-19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 24 | +4.0 |
| K. Palek III * | 22 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | -1.0 |
| D. Sutton | 25 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | -5.0 |
| L. Epes | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +0.0 |
| T. Brooks | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6.0 |
* = starter