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2025-11-11

Model Predictions

Model Arkansas State Red Wolves Missouri State Bears Spread Result
Elo 55.8% 44.2% -
Bradley-Terry 64.6% 35.4% -
Margin 51.9% 48.1% -0.4 (0.6 off)
Pythagorean 55.7% 44.3% -
Efficiency 76.1% 23.9% -
Adjusted Efficiency 58.1% 41.9% -
Log Adjusted 58.0% 42.0% -
Points Off/Def 48.5% 51.5% -

Actual: Missouri State Bears -1 (85-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Harmon * 35 2-7 1-6 0-1 11 4 1 0 2 5 12 -
J. Ellingsworth * 34 4-9 1-3 0-1 4 1 2 0 2 9 5 +4.0
C. Jackson * 27 10-11 3-3 10-12 4 1 0 0 3 33 24 -
TJ Caldwell * 27 6-15 0-3 4-4 7 1 1 0 4 16 6 -
A. Tounkara * 16 3-4 0-0 2-2 3 1 0 2 0 8 10 +0.9
K. Hayman 27 2-13 0-5 2-2 7 1 1 0 2 6 0 -
R. Smith 20 1-3 0-1 5-7 1 2 1 0 0 7 8 +5.0
C. Dioramma 10 1-2 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -2.0
F. Sylla 4 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

Missouri State Bears

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Williams Jr. * 37 4-14 2-5 4-4 1 2 0 1 0 14 4 -1.1
Z. King * 37 7-9 2-3 2-2 5 0 1 1 1 18 15 -0.0
K. Williams * 26 1-6 0-5 5-6 2 1 0 0 1 7 3 +4.0
M. Osei-Bonsu * 24 5-7 0-0 11-19 10 4 1 0 5 21 24 +4.0
K. Palek III * 22 5-11 1-5 2-2 2 0 2 0 2 13 4 -1.0
D. Sutton 25 3-7 1-2 0-0 10 4 3 1 2 7 16 -5.0
L. Epes 22 0-1 0-1 2-2 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 +0.0
T. Brooks 7 1-1 0-0 1-2 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 -6.0

* = starter