UCF

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

Also known as: UCF Knights, UCF

Program History

Coach: Johnny Dawkins Jr

2025 Team Stats (37 games)

79.8

PPG

80.4

Opp

-0.6

Margin

42.6%

FG%

33.8%

3P%

77.5%

FT%

36.9

RPG

13.9

APG

12.2

72.7

Est. poss./game

83.0

Adj PPG

74.9

Adj Opp PPG

#69

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1166 (#74)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1118 (#83)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +87 elo More →	1025 (#138)	HCA +87 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More →	+9.4 (#68)	HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More →	+9.9 (#62)	HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.478 (#191)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +14.2 More →	0.836 (#65)	AdjNet +14.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +14.4 More →	0.840 (#66)	AdjNet +14.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.0 \| AdjD 74.9 More →	0.676 (#69)	AdjO 83.0 \| AdjD 74.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 81.5 \| AdjD 78.0 More →	0.577 (#92)	AdjO 81.5 \| AdjD 78.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.712 (#71)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.694 (#71)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 \| GP 37 More →	1160 (#69)	RD 97 \| GP 37

2025 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2024-11-04	vs	Texas A&M Aggies	W	64 - 61
2024-11-08	vs	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons	W	75 - 68
2024-11-12	vs	Florida Atlantic Owls	W	100 - 94
2024-11-19	vs	Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	W	80 - 69
2024-11-22	@	Wisconsin Badgers	L	70 - 86
2024-11-24	vs	LSU Tigers	L	102 - 109
2024-11-27	vs	Milwaukee Panthers	W	84 - 76
2024-12-01	vs	California Baptist Lancers	W	74 - 59
2024-12-08	vs	Tarleton State Texans	W	66 - 51
2024-12-14	vs	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	W	88 - 75
2024-12-21	vs	Jacksonville Dolphins	W	86 - 66
2024-12-31	@	Texas Tech Red Raiders	W	87 - 83
2025-01-05	vs	Kansas Jayhawks	L	48 - 99
2025-01-08	vs	Colorado Buffaloes	W	75 - 74
2025-01-11	@	Arizona Wildcats	L	80 - 88
2025-01-14	@	Arizona State Sun Devils	W	95 - 89
2025-01-18	vs	Houston Cougars	L	68 - 69
2025-01-21	@	Iowa State Cyclones	L	83 - 108
2025-01-25	vs	TCU Horned Frogs	W	85 - 58
2025-01-28	@	Kansas Jayhawks	L	87 - 91
2025-02-01	vs	BYU Cougars	L	75 - 81
2025-02-05	vs	Cincinnati Bearcats	L	83 - 93
2025-02-08	@	Baylor Bears	L	76 - 91
2025-02-11	vs	Iowa State Cyclones	L	65 - 77
2025-02-15	@	Colorado Buffaloes	L	63 - 76
2025-02-19	@	Oklahoma State Cowboys	L	95 - 104
2025-02-23	vs	Utah Utes	W	76 - 72
2025-02-26	vs	Kansas State Wildcats	W	80 - 76
2025-03-01	@	TCU Horned Frogs	L	78 - 89
2025-03-05	vs	Oklahoma State Cowboys	W	83 - 70
2025-03-08	@	West Virginia Mountaineers	L	65 - 72
2025-03-11	@	Utah Utes	W	87 - 72
2025-03-12	@	Kansas Jayhawks	L	94 - 98
2025-04-01	vs	Oregon State Beavers	W	76 - 75
2025-04-03	@	Cincinnati Bearcats	W	88 - 80
2025-04-05	@	Villanova Wildcats	W	104 - 98
2025-04-06	vs	Nebraska Cornhuskers	L	66 - 77

2025 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Keyshawn Hall	-	33	33.4	18.8	7.1	2.4	0.8	0.5	3.0	13.3	13.2	-	-	-	-	42.7	35.4	81.6	-	56.6	47.8
Darius Johnson	-	37	34.4	17.4	3.4	4.3	2.2	0.2	2.9	12.8	11.8	-5	37	-0.1	-0.2	43.4	39.6	82.7	2.49	58.7	53.2
Jordan Ivy-Curry	-	34	29.2	13.1	3.3	2.2	1.4	0.1	1.3	10.6	8.1	-	-	-	-	40.1	34.0	84.3	-	54.7	49.6
Moustapha Thiam	-	34	28.8	10.4	6.4	0.7	0.5	2.6	1.3	8.3	11.0	-	-	-	-	49.8	29.1	66.7	-	56.2	53.9
Jaylin Sellers	-	3	15.7	6.0	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	2.0	4.7	2.0	-	-	-	-	50.0	40.0	100.0	-	60.5	57.1
Dallan Coleman	-	37	23.4	5.3	4.2	1.0	1.1	0.1	0.7	4.7	6.2	-	-	-	-	33.7	27.5	72.7	-	48.0	42.3
Mikey Williams	-	18	14.0	5.1	1.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.6	4.9	2.8	-	-	-	-	37.1	28.1	80.0	-	46.5	42.1
JJ Taylor	-	25	13.8	4.4	2.2	0.8	0.4	0.3	1.1	3.2	3.7	-	-	-	-	40.7	32.5	65.2	-	53.8	48.8
Nils Machowski	-	31	12.3	3.7	2.2	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.5	2.7	4.1	-	-	-	-	43.5	36.7	81.5	-	58.8	54.1
Benny Williams	-	35	13.1	3.6	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.5	0.6	3.5	3.3	-	-	-	-	43.9	21.7	46.7	-	46.6	45.9
Tyler Hendricks	-	26	12.3	3.2	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.2	2.5	3.9	47	19	2.5	7.6	43.9	36.4	66.7	0.58	55.5	53.0
Dior Johnson	-	35	8.5	2.9	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.6	2.4	2.1	-	-	-	-	45.9	30.4	90.0	-	54.9	50.0
Rokas Jocius	-	25	8.5	2.0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.4	2.0	1.6	-	-	-	-	42.0	15.4	71.4	-	46.2	44.0
Poohpha Warakulnukroh	-	4	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.8	-1	2	-0.5	-22.6	0	0	0.0	-1.64	0.0	0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

885 located field-goal attempts in 14 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Darius JohnsonMoustapha ThiamKeyshawn HallJordan Ivy-CurryDallan Coleman

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	124-235	52.8	248	Darius Johnson 27% (68 pts)	Moustapha Thiam 19% (46 pts)	Keyshawn Hall 27% (30 misses)	Darius Johnson 17% (19 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	79-190	41.6	158	Darius Johnson 30% (48 pts)	Keyshawn Hall 20% (32 pts)	Keyshawn Hall 26% (29 misses)	Darius Johnson 23% (26 misses)
Mid-range left	10-34	29.4	20	Jordan Ivy-Curry 20% (4 pts)	Mikey Williams 20% (4 pts)	Darius Johnson 21% (5 misses)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 21% (5 misses)
Mid-range center	9-20	45.0	18	Jordan Ivy-Curry 33% (6 pts)	Dior Johnson 11% (2 pts)	Darius Johnson 36% (4 misses)	Benny Williams 18% (2 misses)
Mid-range right	20-41	48.8	40	Darius Johnson 30% (12 pts)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 20% (8 pts)	Moustapha Thiam 33% (7 misses)	Darius Johnson 14% (3 misses)
Left corner 3	12-33	36.4	36	Dallan Coleman 17% (6 pts)	Dior Johnson 17% (6 pts)	Dallan Coleman 29% (6 misses)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 14% (3 misses)
Right corner 3	14-30	46.7	42	Dallan Coleman 29% (12 pts)	Nils Machowski 21% (9 pts)	Dallan Coleman 31% (5 misses)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 19% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 left	37-128	28.9	111	Darius Johnson 38% (42 pts)	Keyshawn Hall 14% (15 pts)	Darius Johnson 31% (28 misses)	Keyshawn Hall 14% (13 misses)
Above-break 3 center	27-80	33.8	81	Darius Johnson 33% (27 pts)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 22% (18 pts)	Darius Johnson 40% (21 misses)	Moustapha Thiam 25% (13 misses)
Above-break 3 right	36-94	38.3	108	Darius Johnson 22% (24 pts)	Nils Machowski 17% (18 pts)	Jordan Ivy-Curry 22% (13 misses)	Keyshawn Hall 14% (8 misses)