Model Predictions
| Model | Tarleton State Texans | UCF Knights | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.1% | 97.9% | +21.1 | ✓ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UCF Knights +15 (66-51). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Tarleton State Texans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izzy Miles | 39 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | -7.2 |
| Keitenn Bristow | 35 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | -7.2 |
| Nick Krass | 31 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Bubu Benjamin | 26 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | -10.5 |
| Chris Mpaka | 25 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | -9.6 |
| Jordan Mizell | 22 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Joseph Martinez | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Matt Krass | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Johnson | 39 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | +10.0 |
| Moustapha Thiam | 31 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 17 | +12.8 |
| Keyshawn Hall | 28 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +8.4 |
| Jordan Ivy-Curry | 27 | 5-12 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 13 | +11.3 |
| Dallan Coleman | 25 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +3.3 |
| Benny Williams | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1.1 |
| JJ Taylor | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +5.2 |
| Dior Johnson | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Nils Machowski | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.5 |
| Rokas Jocius | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.2 |
* = starter