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UCF

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: UCF Knights, UCF
Program History
Coach: Johnny Dawkins Jr

2023 Team Stats (34 games)

71.5
PPG
65.5
Opp
+6.0
Margin
42.8%
FG%
35.3%
3P%
77.1%
FT%
35.0
RPG
13.8
APG
13.3
TO
67.4
Est. poss./game
70.8
Adj PPG
61.6
Adj Opp PPG
#58
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2022-2023
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1105 (#97) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1083 (#109) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +85 elo More → 996 (#173) HCA +85 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +9.9 (#59) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +9.4 (#62) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.733 (#56) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +8.8 More → 0.733 (#56) NetEff +8.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.1 More → 0.878 (#44) AdjNet +17.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +17.2 More → 0.879 (#45) AdjNet +17.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 61.6 More → 0.697 (#58) AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 61.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 63.3 More → 0.636 (#62) AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 63.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.708 (#72) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.697 (#75) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 34 More → 1074 (#120) RD 103 | GP 34

2023 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2022-11-07 vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs L 95 - 98
2022-11-11 vs Florida State Seminoles W 68 - 54
2022-11-14 vs Western Illinois Leathernecks W 70 - 37
2022-11-18 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys W 60 - 56
2022-11-20 vs Santa Clara Broncos W 57 - 50
2022-11-23 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 76 - 56
2022-11-27 vs Miami Hurricanes L 64 - 66
2022-12-04 vs Samford Bulldogs W 80 - 77
2022-12-11 vs Tarleton State Texans W 75 - 49
2022-12-14 @ Ole Miss Rebels W 72 - 61
2022-12-17 vs Missouri Tigers L 66 - 68
2022-12-21 vs Stetson Hatters W 73 - 58
2022-12-28 vs Wichita State Shockers W 52 - 45
2022-12-31 @ Houston Cougars L 65 - 71
2023-01-04 @ East Carolina Pirates W 64 - 61
2023-01-08 vs SMU Mustangs W 85 - 53
2023-01-11 vs Memphis Tigers W 107 - 104
2023-01-14 @ Tulane Green Wave L 69 - 77
2023-01-21 @ South Florida Bulls L 72 - 85
2023-01-25 vs Houston Cougars L 71 - 82
2023-01-28 vs Temple Owls L 70 - 77
2023-02-04 @ Cincinnati Bearcats L 64 - 73
2023-02-08 @ Wichita State Shockers W 72 - 67
2023-02-11 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 96 - 52
2023-02-16 @ Memphis Tigers L 63 - 64
2023-02-19 vs Cincinnati Bearcats L 71 - 73
2023-02-22 vs South Florida Bulls L 75 - 82
2023-02-26 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 68 - 49
2023-03-02 @ Temple Owls L 55 - 57
2023-03-05 vs East Carolina Pirates W 84 - 58
2023-03-09 vs SMU Mustangs W 76 - 70
2023-03-10 @ Memphis Tigers L 76 - 81
2023-03-15 @ Florida Gators W 67 - 49
2023-03-19 @ Oregon Ducks L 54 - 68

2023 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Taylor Hendricks Taylor Hendricks - 34 34.7 15.1 7.0 1.4 0.9 1.7 1.4 11.3 13.4 236 33 7.2 8.3 47.8 39.4 78.2 4.01 59.4 55.7
C.J. Kelly C.J. Kelly - 34 30.7 13.3 3.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 2.4 9.4 10.0 172 33 5.2 6.9 44.8 38.7 81.3 1.1 60.7 55.3
Ithiel Horton Ithiel Horton - 34 30.8 12.3 3.7 1.6 1.4 0.1 1.6 11.7 5.7 193 33 5.8 7.6 37.6 34.8 83.3 2.39 49.7 47.4
Darius Johnson Darius Johnson - 25 30.9 10.0 3.0 4.2 2.2 0.1 2.4 9.2 7.8 99 24 4.1 5.4 38.5 26.9 86.0 0.42 49.2 44.6
Brandon Suggs Brandon Suggs - 32 19.2 6.6 3.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.9 96 31 3.1 6.5 46.8 41.2 76.5 1.61 59.1 51.8
Walker, C.J. Walker, C.J. F 4 19.2 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 2.0 4.8 3.8 - - - - 36.8 33.3 50.0 1.99 44.4 42.1
Jayhlon Young Jayhlon Young - 33 19.2 4.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 1.4 3.6 4.4 105 32 3.3 6.8 37.3 35.8 81.6 0.38 52.7 45.3
Tyem Freeman Tyem Freeman - 26 11.8 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 34 25 1.4 4.5 41.0 25.0 59.4 -0.71 47.8 44.2
Lahat Thioune Lahat Thioune - 34 13.4 2.6 3.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.9 33 33 1.0 2.9 47.1 0 64.3 -3.17 48.8 47.1
Thierno Sylla Thierno Sylla - 27 6.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.8 31 26 1.2 7.6 46.9 36.4 33.3 -0.48 58.1 59.2
PJ Edwards PJ Edwards G 19 6.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.1 22 19 1.2 7.0 37.1 26.1 0 -0.85 45.7 45.7
Poohpha Warakulnukroh Poohpha Warakulnukroh - 7 1.9 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 5 7 0.7 14.1 66.7 100.0 50.0 -1.35 77.3 83.3
Taylor Hendricks Taylor Hendricks G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Charlie May Charlie May G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2022-2023 Shot Zones

104 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Hendricks33% Hendricks30% Johnson40% Horton100% Kelly33% Young50% Kelly50% Horton60% Kelly100%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Thioune31% Kelly17% Suggs20% Hendricks100% Kelly50% Johnson50% Horton67% Johnson33% Suggs20% Kelly40%
Misses: who misses most here

Taylor HendricksC.J. KellyIthiel HortonDarius JohnsonLahat ThiouneBrandon SuggsJayhlon Young

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 21-34 61.8 42 Taylor Hendricks 33% (14 pts) C.J. Kelly 29% (12 pts) Lahat Thioune 31% (4 misses) C.J. Kelly 15% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 10-16 62.5 20 Taylor Hendricks 30% (6 pts) Darius Johnson 20% (4 pts) C.J. Kelly 17% (1 misses) Darius Johnson 17% (1 misses)
Mid-range left 5-10 50.0 10 Darius Johnson 40% (4 pts) Ithiel Horton 40% (4 pts) Brandon Suggs 20% (1 misses) Darius Johnson 20% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 0-1 0.0 0 - - Taylor Hendricks 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range right 1-5 20.0 2 Ithiel Horton 100% (2 pts) - C.J. Kelly 50% (2 misses) Darius Johnson 50% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 3-7 42.9 9 C.J. Kelly 33% (3 pts) Ithiel Horton 33% (3 pts) Darius Johnson 50% (2 misses) Ithiel Horton 50% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 2-5 40.0 6 Jayhlon Young 50% (3 pts) Taylor Hendricks 50% (3 pts) Ithiel Horton 67% (2 misses) Taylor Hendricks 33% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 4-10 40.0 12 C.J. Kelly 50% (6 pts) Ithiel Horton 25% (3 pts) Darius Johnson 33% (2 misses) Ithiel Horton 33% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 5-10 50.0 15 Ithiel Horton 60% (9 pts) C.J. Kelly 20% (3 pts) Brandon Suggs 20% (1 misses) C.J. Kelly 20% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 1-6 16.7 3 C.J. Kelly 100% (3 pts) - C.J. Kelly 40% (2 misses) Brandon Suggs 20% (1 misses)