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Sacramento State

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Sacramento State Hornets
Program History
Coach: Michael Czepil

2026 Team Stats (30 games)

77.2
PPG
81.8
Opp
-4.6
Margin
42.1%
FG%
33.4%
3P%
77.9%
FT%
34.1
RPG
12.8
APG
10.5
TO
81.6
Pace
75.7
AdjO
83.2
AdjD
#272
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 759 (#338) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 835 (#299) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 874 (#688) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -6.7 (#264) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +5.6 (#294) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.247 (#311) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.9 More → 0.194 (#281) NetEff -13.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -10.0 More → 0.241 (#274) AdjNet -10.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.0 More → 0.240 (#274) AdjNet -10.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.7 | AdjD 83.2 More → 0.336 (#272) AdjO 75.7 | AdjD 83.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 77.6 More → 0.436 (#533) AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 77.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.548 (#310) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.503 (#325) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 30 More → 856 (#604) RD 148 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-04 vs Dominican (CA) Penguins W 103 - 79
2025-11-07 vs Jessup University Warriors W 86 - 76
2025-11-11 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 87 - 92
2025-11-14 @ UC Davis Aggies L 73 - 77
2025-11-16 vs Presbyterian Blue Hose W 64 - 62
2025-11-18 @ UCLA Bruins L 48 - 79
2025-11-21 @ California Golden Bears L 67 - 91
2025-11-25 vs San Francisco State Gators W 94 - 46
2025-11-29 @ Pacific Tigers L 54 - 68
2025-12-02 @ Baylor Bears L 88 - 110
2025-12-20 @ California Baptist Lancers L 67 - 74
2025-12-22 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 88 - 100
2026-01-01 @ Idaho State Bengals L 84 - 97
2026-01-03 @ Weber State Wildcats L 82 - 95
2026-01-10 @ Portland State Vikings L 69 - 96
2026-01-15 vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks W 83 - 69
2026-01-22 @ Idaho Vandals L 76 - 86
2026-01-24 @ Eastern Washington Eagles L 67 - 75
2026-01-29 vs Montana State Bobcats W 83 - 80
2026-01-31 vs Montana Grizzlies W 86 - 79
2026-02-02 vs Weber State Wildcats W 104 - 90
2026-02-07 vs Portland State Vikings L 73 - 74
2026-02-12 @ Northern Colorado Bears L 79 - 95
2026-02-14 @ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks L 74 - 79
2026-02-19 vs Eastern Washington Eagles L 94 - 102
2026-02-21 vs Idaho Vandals L 80 - 86
2026-02-26 @ Montana Grizzlies L 73 - 81
2026-02-28 @ Montana State Bobcats L 61 - 82
2026-03-02 vs Idaho State Bengals W 83 - 65
2026-03-07 @ Idaho Vandals L 45 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
P. Johnson P. Johnson - 29 35.1 17.8 7.5 3.7 2.6 0.3 2.2 13.4 16.2 9 0.5 2.0 46.7 39.8 73.4 -0.04 57.0 52.7
M. Williams M. Williams - 21 35.0 17.1 3.0 4.5 1.2 0.4 2.9 13.8 9.6 68 3.1 5.7 36.3 26.5 83.0 0.31 50.4 40.1
Jeremiah Cherry Jeremiah Cherry - 6 31.2 15.5 8.2 1.7 0.7 2.3 3.7 12.8 11.8 8 1.3 2.7 48.1 12.5 69.2 -0.07 52.6 48.7
J. Summers J. Summers G 30 25.6 9.7 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.1 7.4 5.4 -25 -1.2 -2.6 45.0 41.9 74.0 -0.22 59.6 57.2
Mark Lavrenov Mark Lavrenov - 30 25.3 9.7 6.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 6.5 10.0 -60 -2.9 -5.9 44.6 27.3 83.1 -0.26 57.7 46.9
A. Madi A. Madi - 29 21.6 7.0 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.8 5.6 6.5 -10 -0.5 -1.5 45.3 29.7 73.5 -0.13 55.9 52.2
J. Teat J. Teat - 28 14.6 6.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 5.9 2.2 42 2.1 8.6 33.9 35.1 81.5 -0.08 47.2 43.9
S. O'Neal S. O'Neal F 30 19.1 5.1 3.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 3.8 5.3 -62 -3.0 -8.7 40.4 31.1 79.3 -0.46 54.5 46.5
T. Glover T. Glover - 28 13.2 4.5 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 3.4 4.0 -5 -0.3 -1.2 37.2 24.3 75.8 0.2 51.9 42.0
B. Gardner B. Gardner - 16 15.6 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.4 3.6 4.5 9 0.6 2.0 42.1 22.7 86.7 -0.22 51.9 46.5
Romari Robinson Romari Robinson - 23 11.1 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 15 0.9 9.7 35.0 27.8 60.0 0.11 45.1 41.2
J. Nyarko J. Nyarko F 5 5.0 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 -5 -1.0 -12.7 33.3 0 0 -0.1 33.3 33.3
Isaiah Bronson Isaiah Bronson - 6 3.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 15 2.5 93.5 50.0 0 50.0 0.13 53.2 50.0
Zach Anderson Zach Anderson G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG