Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Portland State Vikings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.5% | 90.5% | +15.6 | ✓ (11.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.3% | 85.7% | +9.9 | ✓ (17.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 7.2% | 92.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.9% | 85.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.8% | 85.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Portland State Vikings +27 (96-69). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prophet Johnson | 38 | 3-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -21.2 |
| Mikey Williams | 30 | 9-20 | 0-3 | 11-14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 13 | -25.8 |
| Mark Lavrenov | 28 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | -17.4 |
| Jayden Teat | 19 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | -3.9 |
| Arman Madi | 19 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -14.2 |
| Brandon Gardner | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.1 |
| Shaqir O'Neal | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -4.9 |
| Taj Glover | 15 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Jahni Summers | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4.2 |
| Romari Robinson | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.6 |
Portland State Vikings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Henderson | 40 | 10-19 | 1-6 | 5-5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 11 | +20.1 |
| T. Minott | 36 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 36 | +21.4 |
| Terri Miller Jr. | 35 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 30 | +29.6 |
| Keyon Kensie Jr. | 24 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +16.0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 20 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | +16.1 |
| Sebastian Tidor | 11 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | -3.6 |
| Brycen Long | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +14.8 |
| Alex Dupre | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3.6 |
| Kelcy Phipps | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Charles Chukwu | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Mozae Downing-Rivers | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.2 |
| Brayden Barron | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.1 |
| Samuel Stewart IV | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.3 |
| Colt Ness | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
* = starter